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NFL Week 4 picks towards the unfold: Saints, Falcons and Panthers all rating upsets

Lastly obtained a great week occurring the general picks in Week 3, so let’s maintain it rolling into Week 4, a really powerful structure for selecting NFL video games. Nearly all the spreads are beneath a landing, with solely the Pack/Pats line climbing into double digits.

The Dolphins’ loss Thursday means there’s just one remaining undefeated staff — Philly — and we proceed to see an outrageous quantity of parity throughout your entire league. 

It solely makes choosing a slate of video games that a lot more durable, however let’s give it a attempt anyway. 

All NFL odds are by way of Caesars Sportsbook

NFL Week 4 Picks

Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET
TV
: NFLN | Stream: Paramount+ (click here)

Newest Odds:

New Orleans Saints
+3

Early morning London soccer! The factor you by no means missed and but one way or the other did not notice you wished. The primary worldwide recreation is all the time so jarring — it is like when there is a random 11 a.m. ET faculty soccer recreation and also you’re utterly thrown for a loop. This line is extraordinarily pungent. Minnesota is lower than a three-point favourite towards a Saints staff that wanted a miracle Week 1 rally towards the Falcons to keep away from 0-3 with a foul loss towards Tampa Bay and a VERY unhealthy loss towards the Panthers. This appears like a state of affairs the place Andy Dalton begins and we get Spiderman Meme’d to demise with him battling Kirk Cousins in not-quite-primetime. Bizarre feeling the Saints steal one thing right here despite the fact that the Vikings are the higher total staff. 

The choose: Saints 21, Vikings 17
Props, Finest Bets: Saints +2.5

Sunday,1 p.m. ET
TV: 
CBS | Stream: Paramount+ (click here)  

Newest Odds:

Baltimore Ravens
+3

If this recreation would not flip right into a loopy shootout with one among Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen surging to the forefront of the MVP race, it will likely be actually disappointing. The Payments and Ravens have defensive points and are two of essentially the most explosive groups in soccer. Each had been roundly criticized for accuracy and passing expertise coming into the 2018 draft and each have emerged as clear dominant forces. Rashod Batemen and Devin Duvernay are answering questions on Baltimore’s receiving corps. The Payments have some deadly quick-score choices as properly. It is in all probability sq. however the over appears like a lock right here. 

The Choose: Ravens 35, Payments 31
Bets: Ravens +3, Over 51

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV: 
CBS | Stream: Paramount+ (click here)  

Newest Odds:

Atlanta Falcons
+1

Are the Falcons higher than we thought? This shall be an attention-grabbing take a look at recreation towards a 2-1 Browns staff lingering fairly massive with Deshaun Watson coming again. The Browns are second in rush DVOA on offense and the Falcons are a backside 5 staff in rush protection by DVOA (price noting: normally it is best to attend 4 weeks for adjusted stats on that primarily based on Soccer Outsiders reevaluating preconceived biases). Cleveland’s protection has been missing and it is laborious to think about Myles Garrett is taking part in this Sunday; it is nice information he is doing properly as he’s. Regardless of the dashing matchup, Atlanta goes to hold on this recreation and possibly discover a solution to steal it.

The Choose: Falcons 24, Browns 21
Bets: Move

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV:
FOX | Stream: fuboTV (click here)  

Newest Odds:

New York Giants
-3

Taking a look at this 39.5 complete, it is laborious to inform whether or not or not it is merely these two offenses or the potential for hurricane climate coming in that course. My considering is the previous. The Bears are an unbelievable 2-1 … however so are the Giants! I’ve heard a number of folks recommend (shoutout my new buddies from RGA) Daniel Jones performed his greatest recreation as a professional towards the Cowboys on Monday evening. He was pressured 26 instances on 36 dropbacks, simply an insane quantity. Roquan Smith is on an absolute bender proper now with 27 (!) tackles in his final two weeks. He is the distinction maker right here, as is the Bears floor recreation.

The Choose: Bears 17, Giants 14
Bets: Bears

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV: 
CBS | Stream: Paramount+ (click here)  

Newest Odds:

Philadelphia Eagles
-6.5

Two of my three favourite groups from 2022 squaring off in a troublesome recreation to select. The Jaguars are the one staff in your entire NFL with a top-five offense and protection by DVOA. Doug Pederson, a.okay.a. “NUM” a.okay.a. (Not City Meyer) has some huge time Jim Harbaugh in San Francisco 2011 vibes. However I am unsure this week is the max-out spot for the Jags, even in a Doug Pederson Revenge Recreation. The Eagles are merely simply excellent, and their protection can lock folks down late when it is clicking.

The Choose: Eagles 27, Jaguars 17
Bets: Move

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV:
FOX | Stream: fuboTV (click here)  

Newest Odds:

Detroit Lions
-3.5

The Lions are a enjoyable staff, however there are a variety of accidents on offense — D’Andre Swift and Amon Ra St. Brown are out — and the protection is able to letting anybody storm by the again door. We may look again at this recreation and level to the seventh seed within the NFC. 

The Choose: Lions 27, Seahawks 24
Bets: Move

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV: 
CBS | Stream: Paramount+ (click here)  

Newest Odds:

Houston Texans
+5.5

Justin Herbert has to stay a query mark, virtually as huge a query mark as protecting Justin Herbert within the recreation when the Chargers had been up not solely three however 4 scores. Brandon Staley is an efficient coach, nevertheless it appears like he deserted his ideas this season and possibly it has him somewhat shook? There’s zero purpose Herbert ought to have performed as a lot as he did. The Texans are 0-2-1 however have been in each recreation they’ve performed. I believe they’re reside for an upset right here courtesy of an enormous recreation from Damion Pierce.

The Choose: Texans 27, Chargers 24
Bets: Texans +5

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV:
FOX | Stream: fuboTV (click here)  

Newest Odds:

Pittsburgh Steelers
-3.5

The Steelers are usually not good on offense, however the Jets are actually unhealthy on offense. The beneath right here might be a reasonably good look even when the overall is sub 40. There’s an opportunity this turns into the Kenny Pickett recreation, though Mike Tomlin’s appeared fairly set on persevering with to roll with Mitchell Trubisky as his quarterback. I am taking the Steelers however not at all am I assured with it. 

The Choose: Steelers 20, Jets 15
Bets: No bets

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
TV: FOX
 | Stream: fuboTV (click here)  

Newest Odds:

Indianapolis Colts
-3.5

This an enormous AFC South recreation — the winner finally ends up seemingly getting somewhat little bit of a leg up on the Jaguars, assuming the Eagles handle enterprise. Indy has the higher total roster/staff, I believe. The Titans can get a ton of inside stress with Jeffrey Simmons and that ought to disrupt Matt Ryan sufficient to maintain this division battle shut. 

The Choose: Colts 20, Titans 17
Bets: No bets

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET
TV: 
FOX | Stream: fuboTV (click here)  

Newest Odds:

Dallas Cowboys
-3

Dallas is a outstanding 2-1 regardless of rolling out Cooper Rush at QB the previous few weeks. Washington obtained stomped by the Eagles final week, however I am unsure they’re as unhealthy as they seemed towards Philly. The Eagles would possibly merely be the most effective staff in soccer. The Cowboys protection may very well be an enormous drawback pressure-wise right here, however I believe Washington can maintain it shut sufficient with Carson Wentz throwing the ball downfield within the second half. It is also honest to surprise if we would see some adjustment from defenses towards Rush and maybe a correction. 

The Choose: WFT 21, Cowboys 17
Bets: N/A

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
TV: 
FOX | Stream: fuboTV (click here)  

Newest Odds:

Carolina Panthers
-1

Nasty little plot twist for the Cardinals who discover themselves at 1-2 and an underdog on the highway towards a Panthers staff nobody thinks is especially nice. Carolina may very well be 2-1 fairly simply nonetheless, and the protection is taking part in at a reasonably excessive degree. Kyler Murray and the Cardinals offense is working in an unsustainable vogue and towards a Panthers protection with sufficient pace to include and chase down Kyler Murray, this can be a spot for Matt Rhule to flip a few of the FCF (first coach fired) stress onto Kliff Kingsbury, whose offseason contract extension looms awkwardly in the intervening time.

The Choose: Panthers 20, Cardinals 17
Bets: Move

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
TV: 
CBS | Stream: Paramount+ (click here)  

Newest Odds:

Las Vegas Raiders
-2.5

The Raiders are an extremely determined staff — the one 0-3 staff within the NFL — on the brink of host the … first place Denver Broncos. Russell Wilson’s struggled badly on deep passes and he and Nathaniel Hackett merely cannot get on the identical web page. Hackett’s in-game determination making has clearly lacked a sure competence. For that purpose give me the Raiders to discover a solution to win this recreation, despite the fact that it is troublesome to be assured of their protection. Davante Adams wants a signature efficiency right here.

The Choose: Raiders 31, Broncos 24
Bets: Raiders -3

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
TV: 
CBS | Stream: Paramount+ (click here)  

Newest Odds:

Inexperienced Bay Packers
-9.5

Mac Jones is “everyday” based on Invoice Belichick, who had some attention-grabbing media classes this week. There are rumors about him desirous to pressure his means out on the sphere for this recreation, however I am unsure it issues when trying on the handicap right here. Aaron Rodgers on a much bigger stage (key CBS recreation on Sunday afternoon) towards Belichick with the Packers offense beginning to get rolling and the protection taking part in excellent soccer. The Patriots merely aren’t excellent proper now and Brian Hoyer vs. an injured Mac will not change that a lot. 

The Choose: Packers 24, Patriots 7
Bets: Move

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET
TV: 
NBC | Stream: fuboTV (click here)  

Newest Odds:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
PK

The Patrick Mahomes Tremendous Bowl Revenge Recreation! The Chiefs are favored right here nevertheless it may merely be a results of expectation for the sport being moved to a impartial website. That is not the case, with Tampa away from Hurricane Ian a lot ahead of anticipated. Mike Evans is again, Tom Brady is in primetime at residence and the Bucs protection ought to nonetheless be capable of give Mahomes some matches. 

The Choose: Buccaneers 28, Chiefs 27
Bets: Buccaneers 

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET
TV: 
ESPN | Stream: fuboTV (click here)  

Newest Odds:

San Francisco 49ers
-1.5

Actually wished to make the Rams a greatest guess this week, however Kyle Shanahan’s historical past of dominating L.A. simply has me too involved. The Rams obtained their offense going towards Arizona to the tune of seven.4 yards per play final week. San Francisco provides a a lot more durable defensive take a look at. Sadly so do the Rams and Jimmy Garoppolo hasn’t seemed nice since taking on for Trey Lance. Making issues worse is Trent Williams absence. I will buck traits and take the Rams to steal this one on the highway in prime time.

The Choose: Rams 24, 49ers 21
Bets: Move



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