NFL homestretch: Which teams can set up the easiest path to the Super Bowl?

The NFL regular season is in its final three-week stretch, and the teams that will make this year’s playoffs are nearly set. Seven teams have clinched a spot, and six others have an 87% or better chance of making the playoffs by the New York Times’ simulator, which leaves the NFC West as the last “you’re in or you’re out” spot truly up for grabs.

What is still very much up in the air are the seeds for those 14 teams. One NFC team sitting pretty at 12-2 right now will end up with a first-round bye, and another will start the playoffs on the road as a wild card. Patrick Mahomes’ ankle injury suddenly means the Chiefs aren’t a lock for the AFC’s top seed and home-field advantage, cracking open a window for Buffalo, which handed Kansas City its only loss so far this season.

We’re here to show you which teams have an easy three weeks ahead, and which teams have a significantly more difficult path to the playoffs. The question is no longer whether they’ll make the postseason, but rather how they can help themselves with an easier road to the Super Bowl in New Orleans. Here are the battles to watch down the stretch and the remaining opponents for each team:

NFC TOP SEED

Lions (12-2): at Bears, at 49ers, vs. Vikings (combined record 22-20)

Eagles (12-2): at Commanders, vs. Cowboys, vs. Giants (combined record 17-25)

Vikings (12-2): at Seahawks, vs. Packers, at Lions (combined record 30-12)

This is a great three-way battle that will probably come down to the Lions-Vikings regular-season finale in Week 18. If we presume, conservatively, that each team wins at least one more game, you’ll have three 13-win teams in the same conference — the NFL had only one total last year. Three 14-win teams in one conference would be unprecedented.

The Vikings have easily the toughest remaining schedule, facing three potential playoff teams, two of them on the road. Then again, the Lions’ two losses this season have come at Ford Field, so there’s irony if another home loss sends Detroit on the road in the playoffs, potentially after going unbeaten away from home. The Lions have been decimated by injuries on defense, so their next two on the road aren’t as easy, though if there’s a team more limited by injuries in the NFL, it’s the 49ers.

Another very real scenario: The Vikings lose one of their next two but then knock off the Lions, and the Eagles, with the easiest remaining schedule of the three, win the next two and need only to beat the lowly Giants in Week 18 to secure the No. 1 seed. New York might have the incentive of knowing a loss gives it the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 draft.

AFC TOP SEED

Chiefs (13-1): vs. Texans, at Steelers, at Broncos (combined record 28-14)

Bills (11-3): vs. Patriots, vs. Jets, at Patriots (combined record 10-32)

Steelers (10-4): at Ravens, vs. Chiefs, vs. Bengals (combined record 28-14)

Before Mahomes injured his ankle, the Chiefs seemed a lock for the AFC’s top seed, but now they face three likely playoff teams, potentially with backup Carson Wentz leading the charge. If they lose two, Buffalo could have the head-to-head tiebreaker over Kansas City, which could mean an AFC Championship Game showdown would take place in Buffalo, rather than at Arrowhead.

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Buffalo has the easiest remaining schedule by far — two games against the Patriots, sandwiched around a home game against the Jets. That’s an easy path to 14 wins, which still wouldn’t make Buffalo the AFC’s top seed if the Chiefs win two of their final three games. Pittsburgh is only a game back of Buffalo, but its schedule might be tougher than the Chiefs’. If anything, the Steelers have to guard against being caught by the Ravens, who are only one game back and can make that up simply by beating Pittsburgh in Baltimore this weekend. The Ravens go to Houston in Week 17, but get to finish the year at home against the Browns, potentially clinching a division title if they win and the Steelers lose to the Bengals.

LAST TWO AFC WILD CARDS

Broncos (9-5): at Chargers, at Bengals, vs. Chiefs (combined record 27-15)

Chargers (8-6): vs. Broncos, at Patriots, at Raiders (combined record 14-28)

The Chargers are two games up on the Colts, Dolphins and Bengals for the final AFC wild card with three weeks left. The New York Times simulator gives them an 87% chance to make the playoffs. So the more interesting thing to watch is whether they can catch the Broncos for the No. 6 seed, which would mean avoiding a trip to face the lesser of the Bills and Chiefs in the wild-card round.

The Chargers get the Broncos at home on Thursday and beat Denver in their first meeting, so a win by itself would put L.A. ahead. Jim Harbaugh’s squad also has a much easier final two weeks, facing two teams on course to pick in the top three selections of the draft in April.

If the Broncos lose on Thursday, there’s a real chance they will face the Chiefs in the regular-season finale knowing that if they win, they’ll have to face the Chiefs again a week later on the road in the playoffs. We’re expecting Mahomes back by the start of the playoffs, but could it be a favorable outcome for Denver to draw Kansas City and a limping Mahomes, rather than a healthy Josh Allen and the Bills? Had the Chiefs not blocked a field goal as time expired, the Broncos would have won at Arrowhead this year.

NFC THIRD SEED

Bucs (8-6): at Cowboys, vs. Panthers, vs. Saints (combined record 14-28)

Rams (8-6): at Jets, vs. Cardinals, vs. Seahawks (combined record 19-23)

There could be a similar “who do you want to avoid in the playoffs” motivation on the NFC side, where the Bucs are only one game up on the Falcons, but also control their destiny to secure the NFC No. 3 seed. That would allow them to avoid hosting the Lions or Vikings in the wild-card round. (Hosting the Packers or Commanders is no treat either, but seems slightly easier).

Both Tampa Bay and Los Angeles have fairly light remaining schedules and could run the table to go 11-6. If both do so, the Bucs would have the tiebreaker over the Rams based on a better conference record. Even so, the Rams could have the division title on the line in Week 18 at home against Seattle, though the Seahawks might need to beat the Vikings this week to keep that in play. There’s a chance that Rams-Seahawks finale could have both teams 10-6 — the winner hosts a playoff game, the loser could miss the playoffs entirely if Washington (9-5) wins just one of its last three games.

Greg Auman is an NFL Reporter for FOX Sports. He previously spent a decade covering the Buccaneers for the Tampa Bay Times and The Athletic. You can follow him on Twitter at @gregauman.

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