In the next 15 years, passengers on the Channel Tunnel rail line could triple, while fares could fall by almost a third.
These are the findings of a new report conducted by consultancy Steer and commissioned by London St Pancras Highspeed, owner of the tracks and station serving the Channel Tunnel.
The study forecasts a rise in passenger numbers from the current level of 11 million a year to 35 million by 2040.
This anticipated growth, along with increased competition on the route, could drive fares down by up to 30 per cent, the analysis concludes.
Plans are already in motion to double the international passenger capacity at St Pancras. At present, it supports up to 1,800 international passengers per hour, but the operator wants to see this increased to as many as 5,000 passengers an hour.
To facilitate this, London St Pancras Highspeed and Eurotunnel are collaborating to shorten journey times, improve timetable coordination and introduce more frequent services. Modifications to the station itself include reconfiguring existing spaces and constructing new facilities to cope with more passengers.
Why can we expect Channel Tunnel fares to decrease?
The 30 per cent fare reduction is projected to come as a result of increased competition and the growth in demand for rail travel through the Channel Tunnel.
Currently, Eurostar is the sole operator on the Channel Tunnel route. As with any business existing in a monopoly, fares and pricing in the absence of competition become artificially inflated.
With new operators vying to get their trains on the route, more options will stimulate competition, naturally driving down prices.
There are also the economies of scale to consider. The expected growth in demand could mean the overall cost per passenger for operators will decrease. Fixed costs of train operation can be spread across a larger number of passengers, allowing companies to price their fares a little lower.
Adding to the potential for cheaper cross-channel rail connections are new financial incentives introduced by London St. Pancras Highspeed.
Under the International Growth Incentive Scheme, new and existing operators on the HS1 line can unlock rebates of £1 (€1.17) per additional passenger carried, which will be paid into a joint fund for marketing and growing passenger demand.
New services can attract discounts on the fees for using the line of up to 50 per cent in year one, 40 per cent in year two and 30 per cent in year three.
The report leans heavily into the shift in consumer behaviour and the move towards more sustainable travel options. As the passenger base increases, operators will be able to offer lower fares and compete more fairly with budget airline options.
Which train operators are bringing the competition to the Channel Tunnel
The Channel Tunnel has been open to competitors since 2010, but the high costs of launching services and acquiring trains to run the route have deterred new operators from competing.
Recent regulatory changes and the launch of incentives have seen a newfound interest in cross-channel rail services, and several operators have already thrown their hats in the ring to operate services.
The Virgin Group has stated a desire to launch cross-channel train services by 2029. Discussions are already underway for a fleet of trains to operate the service.
Competing for access is a Spanish-led consortium known as Evolyn. The company wants to launch high-speed services between London and Paris and has indicated it has reached an agreement with Alstom to purchase 12 high-speed trains for the service.
Also in the mix is a start-up called Gemini Trains. led by Lord Tony Berkeley, a British aristocrat and former Eurotunnel engineer. Gemini has applied for an operator’s license to service Paris, Strasbourg, Cologne, and Geneva with a fleet of 10 trains by 2029.
Most recently, Italian state railway Ferrovie dello Stato Italiane has been revealed to be studying cross-channel services and is working with Evolyn towards this goal.
Other operators have previously expressed an interest in open access to the Channel Tunnel. Deutsche Bahn showcased a high-speed train at London’s St Pancras in 2010, signaling its intent to connect London with destinations in Germany, such as Frankfurt and Cologne. However, it has not yet officially joined the bidding war for services.
Where could you go via the Channel Tunnel, and when?
While discussions are still at early stages, the proposed new competitors on Channel Tunnel services could open direct rail connections to many more European cities from London.
Paris is a key destination and will provide direct competition with Eurostar. Ferrovie, Virgin Group and Evolyn have all mentioned Paris services in their communications to date.
As well as this, Virgin wants to connect London with Amsterdam and Brussels, while Getlink wants to run services directly to German and Swiss cities, including Frankfurt, Cologne, Geneva, Zurich, and Milan.
Most of the companies are targeting a launch between 2029-2030. However, Evolyn is aiming for a more ambitious 2026 start, though this timeline may prove optimistic given the challenges of entering the market.
From finding space for storage and maintenance of trains to money for the purchase of the equipment itself, the barriers to entry remain high.
Positive signals were received in early April when the UK’s Office of Road and Rail concluded that Eurostar must provide access to new operators at Temple Mills depot, a significant hurdle for any new operator. It also said the fees on the HS1 line were too high at €30 per mile – the most expensive in Europe.
Virgin Group declared this to be “a green signal for competition,” although Eurostar maintains Temple Mills is at capacity and can’t support even one new operator.
New trains in the Channel Tunnel will take time, but increased competition will undoubtedly serve to lower prices for the traveling public.
In addition to lower fares, increased competition could significantly reduce the carbon footprint of travel as more passengers opt for this low-emission option. High-speed rail can reduce CO2 emissions by up to 90 per cent compared to flying.
