Declan Rix nominates four horses he will be keeping onside at Ascot on Saturday, live on Sky Sports Racing.
Topganga
2.05 Peroni Nastro Azzurro 0.0% British EBF Fillies’ Handicap (Class Two)
Ten fillies and mares are set to do battle in this Class Two, mile contest up Ascot’s straight track. With bookmakers going 5/1 the field, that suggests how competitive a race it is, but the unexposed Topganga can hopefully run well with her most recent run franked in the 1000 Guineas last weekend.
The well-bred daughter of Siyouni finished fifth of six, beaten 7 lengths, in the Group 3 Fred Darling contested by Elmalka (third), the subsequent 1000 Guineas heroine. She was well-beaten, no doubt, but a tactical race over seven furlongs was never going to bring out the best in her.
Andrew Balding’s inmate clearly isn’t up to that grade either, but this will be her first start in handicap company for a top yard. The stable is currently ticking along nicely, but plenty Balding runners are improving for their second runs this season. Hopefully Topanga falls into that bracket, too.
The step up to a mile looks a big plus, especially if she gets an even pace to run at.
Mostabshir
2.40 Lavazza & Ascot 10 Year Anniversary Victoria Cup (Class Two)
Twenty-two runners in a typically competitive Victoria Cup, but on paper, there doesn’t look to be loads of pace on. We can sometimes assume these big-field handicaps are always going to be run at a strong gallop, but that scenario may not play out in this renewal and I’d like to be on a prominent racer drawn middle to high.
Mostabshir fits that bill for the John and Thady Gosden operation. In some ways it’s a touch disappointing he is running here. The superbly-bred Shadwell-owned horse was considered good enough to run in the St James’s Palace Stakes last season, and acquitted himself well despite his inexperience (sixth of nine behind Paddington, beaten just over seven lengths).
The wheels came off after that Royal Ascot run, mentally more than anything potentially, given was gelded and now sports blinkers. The headgear appeared to spark him back to life last time out at Kempton, a good run on his seasonal debut.
He’s entitled to step forward for that effort with Saturday’s seven furlong trip probably his ideal distance these days, while quickening ground would very much be in his favour, too.
Arabian Storm
2.40 Lavazza & Ascot 10 Year Anniversary Victoria Cup (Class Two)
I’ll also throw Arabian Storm in the mix at a big price in the Victoria Cup. Like Mostabshir, he can be a bit in and out, but the Balding yard won a big handicap sprint at Newmarket last week with a similar sort, in Desert Cop.
Also like Mostabshir, he is drawn middle to high and races prominently. He on the other hand comes here off a disappointing run at Kempton, in the same race the Gosden’s inmate horse was third. While Arabian Storm has won on the all-weather before, that was at odds of 1/4 and it was the second time he’s run well below par on an artificial surface.
The return to turf off a 45-day break for a top team can hopefully spark him back to life. It would be lovely if that standside rail proved the place to be from his draw in 19.
Warda Jamila
4.20 Mariner Systems Fillies’ Handicap (Class Four)
We’ve got another Andrew Balding-trained horse in Warda Jamila here, another filly having her second start of the season after a nice comeback at Newbury.
She has a mixed pedigree in terms of speed and stamina; speed coming from her sire Calyx while her dam, Promise Me, is by Montjeu. This page makes her a half-sister to the yard’s top stayer, the hugely likable Coltrane; so, in time, you would hope she would prove better than her current mark of 80.
Having drifted in the betting ahead of her 2024 debut, Warda Jamila shaped like she has returned in good form. She was maybe keener than ideal up in trip on the first run of the season, but she performed better than the distance beaten and can hopefully take another step forward.
