That would put average monthly job growth near 180,000 for 2024 – lower than the prior three years but consistent with a firm labor market.
The monthly jobs data on Friday are unlikely to alter the view of federal reserve officials that they can slow the pace of interest-rate cuts amid a durable economy and inflation that’s dissipating only gradually. Investors on Wednesday will parse minutes of the Fed’s December meeting for additional insight on how torn policymakers were on the quarter-point reduction in rates. At the time, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack was the lone dissenter.
Speaking late on Saturday, two Fed officials – Mary Daly and Adriana Kugler – emphasized the US central bank must finish off its fight against the post-pandemic price surge and reach its 2% inflation target.
Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is forecast to hold steady at 4.2% and average hourly earnings growth is seen cooling a touch from a month earlier – consistent with a labor market that’s no longer a source of inflation.A separate Labor Department report on Tuesday is forecast to show little change in November job openings from the prior month. The number of vacancies is about 1 million higher than it was at the end of 2019, while the ratio of openings per unemployed person is in line with its pre-pandemic level.”The consensus on Wall Street is that US economic exceptionalism will continue in 2025. Nonfarm payrolls will add fuel to such talk. We expect December’s headline print to be a blowout, with most sectors showing improved hiring. Some of that may be a continued reversal from October’s weak, hurricane-affected print – something that won’t last. We also expect job openings to stabilize, and jobless claims to remain low,” say economists Anna Wong, Stuart Paul, Eliza Winger, Estelle Ou andChris G. Collins.
A number of US central bankers will appear at public speaking events in the coming week.
Around the World
In Canada, jobs data for December will be released after the unemployment rate jumped to 6.8% the previous month. The merchandise trade report will show whether Canada’s economy remains in a deficit with the world, despite a surplus with the US that’s a source of ire for President-elect Donald Trump. Elsewhere, several major economies will release inflation data, with China likely to be close to deflation and the euro zone seeing an uptick. Below is our wrap of what’s coming up in the global economy for the first full week of 2025
In Asia, Inflation data will dominate, giving investors clues on future monetary policy moves. On Wednesday, Australia is expected to reveal a slight uptick in inflation – although the focus will be on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s preferred measure, which could potentially slip back into policymakers’ 2%-3% target band.
On Thursday, China will probably report that its CPI was close to deflation in December while PPI continued to contract, a sign that an array of government stimulus measures haven’t done enough to boost demand.
