How would you pitch to Juan Soto knowing Aaron Judge is lurking behind him? What about Shohei Ohtani and the fearsome trio atop the Dodgers’ lineup?
As part of our weekly chat with MLB on FOX analyst John Smoltz, we asked the Hall of Fame pitcher how he’d go about attacking 11 of the best hitters in this year’s playoff field.
1. Shohei Ohtani, Dodgers
Smoltz: For Ohtani, you better have two lanes working. You got to get something fading away, and you got to get some thinking boring in because if you don’t, you’re going to have a guy with tremendous ability to go to all parts of the field with power. Yes, I’ve seen him swing at pitches up if a guy’s got a good heater.
But I also think that if you don’t have those separators, those lanes going the other way, he’s just too good. And his ability to be quiet at the plate but powerful when he swings, it’s almost like there’s times where he pulls off the ball, and he can be vulnerable. But then when he’s not pulling off the ball, boy, if I’m facing him, I’m throwing him a bunch of splits away, and I’m trying to slider and backfoot, and then I’m elevating the fastball. But you really got to be able to do a multitude of things to get him out.
2. Aaron Judge, Yankees
Smoltz: Aaron Judge presents some problems because he’s starting to close the windows of opportunities, but you still can get some swing and miss. You have to put pressure on the bottom part of the strike zone and hope that you get some help. But you’ve got to get pitches going away from them, sliders, curveballs, once you’ve established some fastballs, which is the key. You’ve got to be able to locate your fastball. If you don’t, he’s going to make you pay. And then, every once in a while, you got to make them honest with a fastball and to keep him off the pitches away, so he’s been able to adjust and stay off the low pitch. But that’s where you got to get him.
He’s too tall, and he’s too strong that if you live in the strike zone and upper tier of the strike zone, he’s going to get you eventually. But the one thing that’s going to be interesting to see is I would not pitch him in the postseason like I pitched him in the regular season, meaning I would be very careful and not allow him to beat me at any point in any time of the game. So, he should have a high total of walks this postseason.
3. Juan Soto, Yankees
Smoltz: Soto is so good, and the reason he’s so good is he just commands a strike zone. He’s not going to swing outside the strike zone too often. He’s so good down and his eye to the pitches that are borderline that you can get a lot of swing and miss out of most guys, and there’s really not a lot of places to go. The one thing you got to do against Soto is you got to mix it up. And he sometimes gives you a free strike, you know, and gets you get ahead of them. But then he’s so comfortable with two strikes that it really doesn’t matter.
And I would say, sometimes he’s vulnerable upstairs above the strike zone with two strikes, but rarely will he swing down below the zone. But ideally, you want to get that back foot breaking ball to get him to swing over the top. So he is the reason Judge has so many RBIs, not to mention Judge’s great season he’s having, but he’s one of those guys that has single-handedly changed the lineup for the New York Yankees when they traded for him.
4. Bryce Harper, Phillies
Smoltz: He’s very aggressive. He has an aggressive style, really attacking the baseball. So, you can play on his aggressiveness. If your stuff is good, you’ll get Bryce Harper early, but you better be getting him early because when his timing is on and he’s not really trying to do too much, he’s tough. And I think top of the zone you can get him above the barrel the bat. He loves to attack the fastball, and then every once in a while you can expand it with a curveball below the zone.
All these guys we’re talking about, every hitter has a weakness, they just have less weaknesses than the rest of the hitters that don’t get to get to the level they’ve gotten. And I think for Bryce Harper, who’s a student of the game, you better not lay one in there because he’s going to deposit it in a seat somewhere. You’ve got to make pitches like it’s 0-2 on Bryce Harper. And there’s good and bad with that. There’s some swing and miss. But then there’s, you’re getting a new baseball, too, if you leave one over the middle of the plate.
5. Yordan Álvarez, Astros
Smoltz: He’s Big Papi reincarnated — David Ortiz. He is calm. He doesn’t really overswing. Nothing seems to bother him. Velocity doesn’t bother him. Spin doesn’t bother him. I’ll tell you what, he single-handedly for me would be the guy I would circle in a lineup and go, ‘uh, uh, I’m not facing him in that ballpark.’ So he can go both ways. He has every plate coverage that you want, and he’s patient.
He’s going to get some swing and misses, but you’re not going to get three of them in the same way, and that’s the key. When you have a guy this good and this talented, you have to find a different way every time to get him out. You cannot, at least in my recollection, I’ve not seen anything dude outside of a left-hander be able to get him out the same way every time.
6. Fernando Tatís Jr., Padres
Smoltz: He’s a big, strong, long-levered hitter who can do damage down in the strike zone, down. He looks like he could be a pretty good golfer because I think that the way that he gets extension creates that power and leverage and makes him unique. You got to make him honest inside and up above the zone, and you gotta try to again whenever you’re facing these hitters, wherever they swing, you got to follow that same swing pattern if you’re going to your secondary stuff on the same level. So, in other words, if he swings at a high fastball, he’s not going to swing at one in the dirt. These guys are elite. But if he swings at a low fastball and follows it away, then you have to follow up with that slider on the same plane.
You cannot have variances where you’re going to get swings and misses like some other hitters are vulnerable. They’re just having a hard time mechanically connected. If you leave one down, that’s where he loves it, to my opinion, what I’ve seen. And then, of course, he can get in that home run-happy place where his power starts getting connected to what his timing is, and everything about hitting is timing. So I think you gotta elevate, you gotta make him honest in and then hope that you can expand him away.
7, 8. Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman, Dodgers
Smoltz: Two guys who are similar with opposite bats. They’re patient. Freddie will go after more pitches early than Mookie will. Mookie’s giving a lot of pitchers strike one. Because, again, he’s patient, and he understands what he’s trying to look for. You cannot beat Mookie middle-in when he’s right. He’s just going to do damage.
Freddie is just a freak. His ability to get to pitches that no one else gets to with his funky style of hitting makes him unbelievably difficult. He will go the other way on the ground, which makes him difficult because they play him to a shift. He’ll smoke that down and in pitch that most people swing over the top, and he’ll get to a high heater. So, you have to change speeds and really kind of play mind games a little bit with Freddie. You got to do it opposite because you can’t just chuck a bunch of fastballs because he’ll spoil a bunch of them, and he’ll get to a pitch that he wants. To keep those three guys off the base consistently is why it’s difficult to face the Los Angeles Dodgers.
9. Bobby Witt Jr., Royals
Smoltz: I can guarantee you this: The book of pitchers has yet to figure it out. So what they’re doing is they’re trying to get to a place where they can find some crack in his ability to be vulnerable. And haven’t seen it this year, so they’re going to have to take a hard look and study a lot of pitchers, and what the ones that did have success and how they expose it. But again, because of his speed and ability to put the ball in play, it makes it difficult to just say, ‘I got to live away. I got to make him reach for things.’ Because when he reaches for things, and he doesn’t hit it over 100 miles an hour, he can reach first base.
So, that’s the talent skill that he has, the power combination. I haven’t seen too many guys elevate. Maybe that’s one area that you could expose, the zone. But anything that seems to be in the strike zone right now, and without taking a hard look at really digesting his at-bats, he’s in the category of a Trea Turner, but not the swing and miss of Trea Turner. He’s got the ability to hit for power and speed and disrupt a pitcher when he gets on the base.
10. José Ramírez, Guardians
Smoltz: A shorter guy with a lot of power and a lot of ability to put back to the ball. You’ve got to be able to get enough fastballs by him, or at least establish your fastball to make everything else work off of it. You have to be able to get him to hit the ball the other way because if you miss middle-in, he’s going to beat you with power.
And as the left-handed hitter facing the right-handed pitcher, I’m fine with him going the other way and trying to think that he could possibly beat me the other way. I’m going to take my chances. Same kind of style, though: If you crowd him with a fastball, then you’ve got to be able to bear in that breaking ball down and in to his back foot. That’s where he’ll swing over the top. You get that pitch, but good luck making those pitches after over time not making a mistake because if you leave it middle-in, that’s where his power shows up. For a shorter guy, he’s got a lot of power.
11. Luis Arráez, Padres
Smoltz: I love watching him hit. I wouldn’t love pitching against him because he’s not going to swing and miss. I mean, if you strike him out, you’re doing something special. And I haven’t figured him out. That’s what makes him a great hitter, right? When you can’t figure out a hitter, that means he’s got a lot of windows that are closed that you can go to. And I would just probably slower than slow, if you have it. I think he thrives on velocity. He’s got such a short swing, compact swing. You throw him away, he goes away. You throw him in, he pulls it down the line.
He’s a Tony Gwynn-esque, and a lot of people will say Rod Carew-esque, you know, it looks like Rod Carew and his style of hitting. And I just think you’ve got to maybe slow him down to where even though it’s short and compact, he’s not using your velocity for his advantage. I’m not saying it’s going to work. I’m saying that’s what I would try, and every once in a while, believe it or not, I’d throw it right down the middle and confuse them, and maybe he hits it at somebody. But you’re not striking them out a lot. That’s one of the greatest in-season trades that nobody saw coming that changed the direction of the San Diego Padres and their lineup, and he has not disappointed.
John Smoltz, a first-ballot Baseball Hall of Famer, eight-time All-Star and National League Cy Young Award winner, is FOX MLB’s lead game analyst. In addition to calling the network’s marquee regular-season games, Smoltz is in the booth for the All-Star Game and a full slate of postseason matchups which include Division Series, League Championship Series and World Series assignments.
Rowan Kavner is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the L.A. Dodgers, LA Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. An LSU grad, Rowan was born in California, grew up in Texas, then moved back to the West Coast in 2014. Follow him on Twitter at @RowanKavner.
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