Historically, there have been similarities between past Bitcoin cycles when it comes to both the bull and the bear markets. A lot of these have to do with the percentage by which the price rises, and then the percentage by which the price begins to crash. Naturally, the expectation has become that the bitcoin price will also follow the previous cycle, leading to calls for much lower prices. But could there be a deviation this time around?
Bitcoin Will See Another Major Crash, But How Low?
Analyst Crypto Patel highlighted the history of Bitcoin price performance over the last few cycles and how it could translate to the current cycle. Over the years, the Bitcoin bear market has often seen the digital asset crash by an average of 80%, suggesting that it is possible that this happens this time around.
Following this same trend, the analyst explains that a 77% crash this cycle would put the BTC price somewhere around $32,000. However, Crypto Patel does not believe that this is possible and that the Bitcoin price will not go this low.
Now, usually, after the Wave 3, the price sees a major crash, which often sends it toward a new bottom. This means that there is still another crash left for Bitcoin before a bottom is reached. The question is now how low the price could go.
Instead of crashing 77% to $32,000, the crypto analyst believes that the Bitcoin price will not fall below $40,000 this cycle. This will essentially mean that it does not get below 70%. Instead, the $40,000-$50,000 level is expected to be the max pain point for investors.
Still Following The 4-Year Cycle
Despite the deviation that occurred back in 2024, when the Bitcoin price hit a new all-time high before the halving, some parts of the 4-year cycle seem to be following the trend. As @ArdiNSC points out on X, the top has been consistently hit in a new 4-year cycle.
It has been the same in 2013, then 2017, before 2021, and then eventually 2017, almost 4 years apart each time. Given this, it is likely that at least some parts of the 4-year cycle are still in play. In such a case, then it could mean that the BTC price decline will continue, since historically, it has bottomed the year before the halving.
This means that BTC is just coming into the bear market, lending credence to Crypto Patel’s prediction that another major crash is coming. If this same 4-year cycle holds, then it is likely that the Bitcoin price will reach new all-time highs somewhere between 2028 and 2029.
Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com
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