Bitcoin has managed to reclaim the $100,000 level after briefly dipping below it earlier this week — a move that triggered widespread panic selling and reinforced bearish sentiment across the market. The sharp selloff liquidated leveraged positions and sent fear metrics surging, but the swift recovery shows that buyers are still active near key demand zones.
According to a new report by CryptoOnchain, the recent market turbulence coincides with a surge in “hot money” flows to Binance. Data from CryptoQuant reveals a notable spike in monthly Bitcoin inflows to the exchange during October 2025, signaling heightened speculative activity. What’s particularly significant is that this inflow is driven almost entirely by “young” coins — UTXOs aged between 0 and 1 day — suggesting that short-term traders and algorithmic participants are dominating recent movements.
This trend highlights a clear uptick in intraday and momentum-driven trading, often linked to volatility and short-lived price swings. While such dynamics can amplify downside risk, they also tend to precede strong market reversals once liquidity stabilizes. As Bitcoin regains footing above the $100K threshold, the market now watches closely to see whether this wave of speculative capital marks the beginning of a broader recovery or just another temporary bounce.
“Hot Money” Drives Exchange Activity, but Long-Term Holders Stay Firm
According to CryptoOnchain, inflows from “young” Bitcoin coins have surged sharply, jumping from roughly $18 billion in September to nearly $26 billion in October. This marks one of the highest inflow levels in the past 12 months, underscoring heightened activity among day traders, speculators, and arbitrage bots. Such behavior typically emerges when markets experience elevated volatility or uncertainty, as short-term participants move assets onto exchanges to position for quick trades.
Historically, sharp increases in exchange inflows often hint at bearish sentiment or potential selling pressure, as traders prepare to take profits or hedge risk. However, the UTXO age breakdown tells a more layered story. Inflows from older coins, typically held by long-term holders (LTHs), remain negligible and close to zero. This divergence indicates that the recent activity is largely short-term in nature, confined to traders reacting to immediate market conditions rather than long-term investors exiting positions.
In essence, while “hot money” inflows could amplify short-term volatility, Bitcoin’s structural foundation remains intact. The core investor base continues holding off-exchange, showing resilience amid market turbulence.
The report suggests that the Bitcoin market is split into two: speculative capital chasing short-term opportunities on one side, and long-term conviction holders quietly standing firm on the other. This balance could determine whether the next move is another shakeout or the start of a new accumulation phase.
Bitcoin Faces Resistance After Brief Recovery
Bitcoin’s 4-hour chart shows a fragile recovery following its sharp decline below the $100,000 level earlier this week. After hitting a low near $98,900, BTC rebounded modestly to $103,000, where it now faces immediate resistance from the 20-day and 50-day moving averages (blue and green lines). These averages have started to slope downward, confirming the short-term bearish trend and capping upside attempts.
The $105,000–$107,000 zone represents the next critical resistance area. A break above this range would likely attract short covering and signal the first signs of stabilization. However, failure to reclaim this zone could lead to renewed selling pressure, with potential retests of $100,000 or even $97,500, a key psychological support level.
Trading volume remains elevated, reflecting ongoing market volatility and uncertainty. While bulls have managed to defend $100K for now, momentum remains weak, and sentiment is still heavily bearish across derivatives and spot markets.
Bitcoin is consolidating within a fragile structure, attempting to build a base after significant liquidations. To regain bullish momentum, BTC must reclaim its short-term moving averages and hold above $107K — otherwise, downside risks persist as traders remain cautious following the recent leverage wipeout.
Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
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