Vice President Kamala Harris is on track to win Colorado by a double-digit margin in November, according to three recent polls of likely voters in the state.
A poll released Wednesday by Telluride-based pollster Keating Research found the Democratic nominee had an 11-point lead over Republican former President Donald Trump, 53% to 42%. Two percent of voters preferred someone else, and 3% were undecided.
Thought it was released this week, the poll by Keating, a Democratic firm, was conducted with 500 likely voters Sept. 11-14, just after Harris and Trump’s Sept. 10 televised debate. It has a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points.
That finding was roughly in line with two other polls conducted over the last few weeks. Those surveys, both performed by Morning Consult, a national firm, found Harris ahead by double digits — leading by 15 percentage points, 55% to 40%, in a poll conducted in late August and early September; and leading by 10 points, 53% to 42% (with results rounded), in a poll conducted Sept. 9-18. Both surveyed roughly 500 likely voters in Colorado.
If those polls prove true to life in November, Harris will win Colorado by a similar margin to President Joe Biden in 2020. Biden beat Trump by more than 13 points in the state. Hillary Clinton, Trump’s Democratic opponent in 2016, won Colorado by just under 5 points.
Nationally, polling averages show Harris with a much narrower 2-3% lead over Trump.
The latest Colorado results show some improvement for Harris over Biden, who withdrew from his reelection bid in late July. A June poll conducted by Global Strategy Group, a Democratic firm, showed Biden leading Trump in the state by 10 percentage points among 800 registered voters in Colorado in a head-to-head matchup.
But that margin dropped to a six-point lead when factoring in other presidential candidates, including independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (The poll was conducted just before Biden’s debate against Trump, widely seen as a disastrous performance.)
Though Kennedy remains on the ballot in Colorado, he suspended his campaign last month and endorsed Trump.
The recent Keating poll shows that among Colorado’s Latino voters, Harris holds a 42-point lead over Trump, 69% to 27%. She leads 55% to 38% among unaffiliated Coloradans, who make up a plurality of registered voters statewide. She also leads by 15 points among voters under the age of 50, by seven points among older voters and by 13 points among voters who live in the suburbs surrounding Denver.
The vice president also leads among women, 57% to 38%.
The poll identified a narrow Harris lead among male voters, too — 49% to 46% — though that is within the poll’s margin of error. Men have been one of Trump’s strongest voting blocs, one he continues to court this cycle. Though Harris appears to hold a slight advantage with men in Colorado, it’s the smallest lead among any group identified by Keating.
Colorado last backed a Republican presidential candidate in 2004, when then-President George W. Bush beat his Democratic challenger, Sen. John Kerry.
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Originally Published:
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