El Niño could return in 2026, raising fears of another surge in global temperatures.
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Just as the planet is still absorbing the shock of back-to-back record years in 2023 and 2024, climate experts are warning that El Niño could make a comeback in 2026 – and push global temperatures to new historic highs.
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) currently puts the chances of El Niño developing between July and September 2026 at 50 to 60 per cent. On its own, the phenomenon is natural. But in a world already warmed by greenhouse gas emissions, even a temporary boost of up to 0.2°C could be enough to tip global averages into uncharted territory.
In short: the climate system doesn’t need much of a nudge anymore.
Why El Niño matters more now than ever
El Niño is part of a natural cycle known as ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation), which plays out in the tropical Pacific Ocean. It begins when the trade winds weaken, allowing warm surface waters to drift eastwards rather than staying pooled near Asia.
That shift changes atmospheric patterns around the globe. Rainfall moves. Droughts intensify in some regions. Flooding increases in others. And crucially, global temperatures rise.
Scientists estimate that a typical El Niño event can temporarily add between 0.1°C and 0.2°C to the planet’s average temperature. Decades ago, that bump might not have been enough to trigger alarm bells. Today, with the baseline already elevated by human-driven warming, it can mean breaking records.
The last El Niño episode, spanning 2023 and 2024, helped make those years the hottest ever recorded worldwide. 2025 followed closely behind.
Could 2026 – or even 2027 – set a new global heat record?
Carlo Buontempo, who leads the EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service, has suggested that 2026 could turn into another record year if El Niño forms as forecast. Some researchers believe the biggest temperature impact could even show up in 2027, as the atmosphere tends to respond with a slight delay.
But here’s the sobering part: several experts point out that record heat is now possible even without El Niño. The long-term warming trend, driven largely by greenhouse gas emissions, continues to push global averages higher.
In other words, El Niño would be an accelerator – not the main engine.
What about La Niña?
El Niño has a cooler counterpart known as La Niña, which typically brings the opposite ocean pattern and different global weather effects. The most recent La Niña, which began in December 2024, was relatively weak and is expected to shift back to neutral conditions soon.
It didn’t significantly slow global warming – a reminder that natural cycles now sit on top of a much stronger, human-driven trend.
NOAA has also updated how it measures El Niño, introducing a new index designed to better reflect warming ocean conditions. Scientists say the revised system gives a clearer picture of how strong events truly are in today’s climate.
For now, 2026 remains uncertain. But if El Niño does return, it could arrive at a time when the planet is already running hotter than ever — and that combination is what has climate scientists watching closely.
