The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting has always had significant implications on the crypto market because this is where the interest rates for the US markets are determined. With the announcement of whether there is a rate hike, a rate ease, or the interest rates staying the same, the markets always react, either positively or negatively. Now, another FOMC meeting is rolling around, and the forecast has leaned heavily toward the Fed keeping the current interest rates.
Fed Likely Keeping The Same Interest Rates
With the next FOMC meeting happening on Wednesday, March 18, 2026, the predictions for what could happen are already pouring in. The FedWatch Tool on the CME websites tracks the probabilities of the outcome of each meeting, then rates it on a percentage scale.
Presently, the FedWatch Tool is reading in favor of no change. It shows a 98.1% probability that the Fed will not change interest rates, meaning that interest rates are likely to stay the same at 3.50-3.75% over the next cycle, before the next meeting.
This leaves a very low probability that the Fed will actually drop interest rates to 3.25-2.50% at only a 1.90% chance. While the tool shows that there is a 0% chance that the Fed will actually hike interest rates, especially as the Fed has been leaning toward a more dovish stance over the last year.
What A No Change Move Means For Crypto
Usually, the decision the Fed takes in each meeting triggers ripple effects across financial markets, and crypto is not left out. During times of rate hikes, which means interest rates go up, investors are much more conservative with their investments. Such an announcement is more likely to trigger a decline across the crypto market.
In the case of an interest rate ease, which means interest rates drop, it is likely to trigger a rally in the crypto market. This is because investors are likely to take more risks when interest rates are low, leading to more liquidity flowing into the market.
When the interest rates remain unchanged, then the crypto market is likely to see sideways movement. Essentially, the slow trend might continue as there is no change, and investors continue to wait for more definitive moves before making their choice of direction.
Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com
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