On Monday, Truist Securities maintained a Hold rating for Crown Holdings (NYSE:) with a steady stock price target of $88.00. This decision aligns with recent developments in Vietnam affecting the beverage industry, specifically the announcement that Heineken (AS:) will shut down its smallest brewery in the country due to falling domestic demand. This move by Heineken comes after a surge in beer consumption post-COVID, which has since seen a significant drop.
The decline in demand has been attributed in part to Vietnam’s implementation of stricter drinking and driving laws. In 2019, the country set a 0.00 legal blood alcohol limit for drivers, aiming to improve road safety, which has inadvertently affected alcohol sales. The tighter regulations have presented challenges for companies like Heineken that rely on robust beer sales within the Vietnamese market.
In addition to regulatory pressures, the Vietnamese ministry of finance is drafting a proposal that could further impact the alcohol industry. The proposal suggests increasing the tax on alcoholic drinks, including beer, from the current rate of 65% to an estimated 70-80% by 2026. Furthermore, by 2030, the tax could nearly double to around 90-100%. These potential tax hikes represent significant headwinds for beverage companies operating in Vietnam.
The closure of Heineken’s brewery is indicative of broader market conditions that companies like Crown Holdings must navigate. As a packaging provider, Crown Holdings is likely to feel the ripple effects of such market changes, which may influence its business prospects in the region.
Truist Securities’ reiteration of the Hold rating and price target for Crown Holdings reflects an assessment of these factors and their potential impact on the company’s performance. The steady price target suggests that while there are challenges ahead, the current valuation adequately reflects the company’s prospects in light of the evolving market dynamics in Vietnam.
In other recent news, Crown Holdings has been in the spotlight due to its Q1 earnings and revenue results, along with an adjusted price target from Loop Capital. Crown Holdings reported an adjusted EPS of $1.02 for the first quarter of 2024, surpassing Loop Capital’s estimate of $0.94, the consensus of $0.96, and the company’s own forecast range of $0.90 to $1.00. Still, the company’s consolidated revenues of $2.78 billion were slightly below the estimated and consensus figure of $2.93 billion.
Despite a decrease in net sales and diluted earnings per share, Crown Holdings experienced an increase in beverage can shipments in the Americas and Europe. The company’s earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) for the quarter reached $383 million, exceeding both Loop Capital’s projection of $365 million and the consensus of $378 million.
Loop Capital has retained a Buy rating for Crown Holdings and increased its price target to $106.00 from the previous $101.00. This adjustment follows Crown Holdings’ recent earnings results and is based on a revised 2024 enterprise value to EBITDA estimate.
In other recent developments, Crown Holdings provided second-quarter and full-year earnings guidance and expects adjusted free cash flow to be substantial. The company is also aiming for significant improvement in Europe in the second half of the year and expects a recovery in the transit business by Q4. These are some of the recent developments that investors should note.
InvestingPro Insights
As Crown Holdings navigates a shifting landscape in the Vietnamese beverage market, highlighted by Heineken’s brewery closure, real-time data from InvestingPro provides a deeper financial context for investors.
With a market capitalization of $9.44 billion and a P/E ratio that has adjusted over the last twelve months as of Q1 2024 to 19.69, Crown Holdings is positioned with a solid valuation. The company’s gross profit margin during the same period stands at 20.63%, indicating a steady capability to generate earnings over its revenue.
InvestingPro Tips reveal that Crown Holdings has demonstrated a commitment to shareholder returns, raising its dividend for three consecutive years. Moreover, the company’s stock is characterized by low price volatility, offering a level of stability in an uncertain market. With analysts revising earnings upwards for the upcoming period and predicting profitability for the year, Crown Holdings appears to be maintaining a positive outlook despite external pressures.
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