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Wars, AI drama, even the odd peace prize — the world had plenty on its bingo card for 2026. But it did not include Donald Trump urging China to send ships to the Middle East. The US president’s request for Chinese help is a black swan moment.
In an age of great power rivalry, the hegemon is inviting its main challenger to help extract it from the world’s most combustible region. Read that again. Then ponder where China’s incentive lies. Why interrupt your enemy while he is making a mistake?
That China has no intention of sending minesweepers to the Strait of Hormuz is clear. The question is whether Xi Jinping wants to see Trump backed into a corner. It is one thing for China to gain a diplomatic edge over the US; quite another to test whether Trump is Dr Strangelove.
The worse things go for Trump in the Gulf, the more tempted he will be to take risks. George W Bush’s 2003 invasion of Iraq ended up being a geopolitical windfall for China. American boots on the ground in Iran could be at least as big.
Trump’s pitch to China nevertheless makes sense. With roughly half of China’s oil imports coming through the Strait of Hormuz, compared with almost nothing for America, Xi has a greater long-term stake in Middle Eastern stability than the US.
That was one reason why Joe Biden commended China for brokering a rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran in 2023. The hope was that China’s days of free riding on US maritime security were over. That sounded plausible then. In today’s drone-infested Middle East, however, Beijing is content to play the onlooker.
Yet China also dreads instability. Since being re-elected in 2024, Trump has been pressing Xi to host a summit. Last April, however, Trump launched an economic war on China, which was his biggest “liberation day” target with tariffs reaching 145 per cent. Following China’s rare earths embargo, the two reached a truce last October. That paved the way for Xi to invite Trump to China.
From Xi’s point of view, the summit’s goal would be to stabilise US-China relations. Until the US struck Iran on February 28, Trump’s purpose was hazier. The only thing on his mind now is exit from a conflict that could consume his presidency. Trump needs all the help he can get, including from China.
Yet he was clearly loath to be pictured on a podium with Xi while the war with Iran is still raging. The optics of any US president — let alone Trump — heading to the Forbidden City with a begging bowl is too lurid. In an interview with the FT on Sunday, Trump floated the prospect of delaying the summit, which was set for March 31 to April 2.
On Monday he postponed it. In the interview, he said that China’s help in the Gulf would be needed before he met Xi, whenever that is. Since Trump knows there is scant chance China will insert personnel into the world’s most lethal chokepoint, we must take the reason for the president’s delay with a pinch of salt.
Which leaves the world in a state of suspension. Trump has better odds of cajoling help from Nato partners, including Britain. Even then, however, he has made it very hard for America’s allies to say yes. For a start, they were not consulted about a war that none of them would have advised. Second, Nato is a self-defence organisation. That means that an attack on one is treated as an attack on all. It does not mean that a unilateral attack by one against a third party must be joined by fellow members, especially when they see that war as gratuitous.
The difference is that Trump can inflict real pain on Europe for refusing to help him. He already suspended oil sanctions on Russia, which is boosting Vladimir Putin’s coffers. That, and the fact that there are far fewer Patriot missiles available for Ukraine, is a blow to European security.
Trump is unfazed by evidence that Putin is helping Iran target US military assets. Vetoing Britain’s deal with Mauritius on Diego Garcia is one threat he was tempted to carry out before the war. Withholding intelligence from Ukraine is another.
By contrast, China is a nut that Trump has not learnt to crack. While Beijing has a stranglehold on rare earths, America is at a disadvantage. Chinese consumers dislike higher oil prices as much as Americans. Until Trump postponed, China said it wanted the summit to go ahead as scheduled.
But Trump is now caught in a trap of his own making. Two weeks is famously a long time in the US president’s eyes. Which means he is adjusting his mindset for a long war.
edward.luce@ft.com
