Iran’s ambassador and permanent representative to the United Nations in Geneva Ali Bahreini told Euronews on 19 June that Tehran will attack the US if Washington “crosses the red lines”.
Iran has not acted on its threat since the Sunday US strike on its nuclear facilities, continuing to focus its military response on Israel instead, over Israel’s 13 June attack on its nuclear programme.
But Iranian officials have doubled down on reprisal threats against the United States. “Mr Trump, the gambler, you may start this war, but we will be the ones to end it,” Ebrahim Zolfaqari, a spokesperson for Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya central military headquarters, said on Monday in a recorded video statement.
Soon after the US strikes, President Donald Trump warned Iranian leaders that the time had come to make peace, “if they do not, future attacks will be far greater,” he said during a presidential address from the White House on Saturday.
The following day, he touted the idea of “regime change” in Iran on his social media platform Truth Social.
Most Western military experts agree that the most probable scenario is for Iran to attack the US military bases in the region.
The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps already said on Sunday that the origin of the US aircraft “has been identified and it is under surveillance”, emphasising that American bases in the region are “not a source of strength, but a point of heightened vulnerability”.
Iran’s proxy in Yemen, the Houthis, also said on Saturday that they would target US ships in the Red Sea if Washington participates in any potential attack against Israel in co-operation with Israel.
“We will target US ships and battleships in the Red Sea if Washington participates in the attack on Iran,” the group’s military spokesperson Yahya Saree said in a statement published by the group’s media outlet.
The US has tens of thousands of troops stationed in the Middle East, including at permanent bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, Arab Gulf countries just across the Persian Gulf from Iran — and much closer than Israel.
Those bases have sophisticated air defences, but would have much less warning time before waves of missiles or swarms of armed drones. It also depends a lot on the number of drones and missiles used in a possible attack. Even Israel, which is several hundred kilometres further away, has been unable to stop all of the incoming fire.
Typically around 30,000 troops are based in the Middle East, and about 40,000 troops are in the region now, according to US officials and AP.
That number surged as high as 43,000 last October in response to heightened tensions between Israel and Iran, as well as continuous attacks on commercial and military ships in the Red Sea by the Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen.
After 13 June, when Israel first hit Iran to stop its nuclear enrichment programme, US forces in the region started taking precautionary measures, including having military dependents voluntarily leave bases, in anticipation of potential strikes and to protect personnel in case of a large-scale response from Tehran.
US targets at risk amid escalating tensions
US troops across the Middle East are also on high alert because Iran and its proxies previously targeted US interests in the region.
One major difference compared to past attacks and threats though is that Iran’s proxies Hezbollah and Hamas’ capabilities are much weaker since Israel decimated them after October 2023.
Bashar Al-Assad, Iran’s long-time champion in Syria, was toppled in December 2024. Also, Iran has missiles, including ballistic, but not much of an aviation force, owing to Western sanctions.
Al-Asad Air Base in western Iraq, the largest U.S. deployment in the country, has been a frequent target.
In 2020, after the US killed Iranian General Qasem Soleimani, Iran launched 16 missiles at American bases in Iraq. Eleven hit al-Asad, wounding dozens. Attacks have continued, with drones and rockets striking the base as recently as August.
In January 2024, a drone strike on Tower 22, a small US outpost in Jordan near the Syrian border, killed three American troops.
The drone strike was the first deadly one against US forces since the Israel-Hamas war started in October 2023. US officials have blamed the attack on the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, a coalition of Iran-backed militias, including Kataib Hezbollah.
In Bahrain, the US Navy’s 5th Fleet operates with around 8,000 personnel. Qatar hosts Al-Udeid Air Base, the forward headquarters of US Central Command, which can accommodate up to 10,000 troops.
Camp Buehring, Ali al-Salem, and al-Dhafra are also key air bases located in Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates.
US diplomatic missions in Iraq and Israel have also begun evacuating staff. Officials warn embassies could be targeted alongside military bases.
US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth said on X that “protecting US forces is our top priority,” announcing the deployment of additional forces to bolster regional defences.
Going for unconventional means, opting for terror attacks
Iran could also target US and Israeli interests in and beyond the Middle East, resorting to terror attacks.
The Islamic Republic has a long track record of opting for terrorism either directly or through its proxies. It also has ties to Al-Qaeda mostly over their common hatred of the United States but no proven shared terrorist goals.
It is also unlikely that so-called lone wolf terrorism acts could be sponsored or inspired by Iran as it has not been its modus operandi — at least so far. Here is a timeline of past terror attacks:
