Since 28 February, the world has been in turmoil. US and Israeli air strikes on Iran killed senior officials, including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, pushing the Middle East closer to open confrontation.
Tehran’s response was swift. It retaliated with a series of escalatory measures, most notably blocking the Strait of Hormuz — one of the most vital arteries for global energy supplies.
Before the conflict, around 135 ships passed through the strait each day, according to the Financial Times.
That has since ground to a halt. Fars News Agency reported that more than 350 vessels, including 25 supertankers, 200 oil tankers and 70 liquefied natural gas carriers, are now awaiting permission from Tehran to transit.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has repeatedly warned that the strait is completely closed and that any attempt to cross it will be met with a “severe response”.
The closure threatens a serious bottleneck on one of the world’s most important trade and energy routes, with knock-on risks to supply chains, transport costs and global economic stability.
The crisis is forcing Europe into a race to secure alternative gas supplies, with Algeria emerging as a strategic partner — geographically close, relatively stable, and increasingly central to European energy security.
Energy prices spiked this month after strikes on Qatar’s Ras Laffan facility, compounding the drop in tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
French President Emmanuel Macron condemned what he called a “reckless escalation”, warning that targeting energy infrastructure would have consequences well beyond the immediate conflict zone.
Algeria was already a major gas supplier to Europe before all this — a role that grew significantly after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 drove the continent to cut its dependence on Russian gas.
Algeria: ‘Alternative lung’ amid supply chain bottlenecks
Energy expert Hashem Akel told Euronews that the Iranian attack on the Ras Laffan complex in Qatar marked a “serious turning point” in the global energy market.
He said it had led to the suspension or significant reduction of Qatari production, with around 17% of export capacity affected, and warned that the impact could last for years.
The effects have been immediate. European gas prices (TTF) have risen by between 60% and 100% since the start of the conflict, while oil prices (Brent) have exceeded $100 a barrel, reaching more than $116 on Monday.
At the same time, gas storage levels in Europe have fallen to between 30 and 46 billion cubic metres at the start of 2026, significantly lower than in previous years.
According to the expert, this raises the risk of a genuine energy crisis next winter, with higher electricity and gas bills, increased pressure on industry — particularly in Germany and Italy—and a growing risk of recession.
European countries are racing to replenish reserves over the summer, but strong competition from Asian markets is making this more difficult.
Against this complex backdrop, Europe’s growing reliance on Algerian gas is becoming increasingly evident. Since the Russian gas crisis in 2022, the country has established itself as a strategic and relatively reliable partner.
In 2025, Algeria supplied the EU with between 39 and 40 billion cubic metres of gas, accounting for around 13–14% of total imports.
Most of this is delivered via pipelines — primarily TransMed to Italy and Medgaz to Spain — alongside shipments of liquefied natural gas (LNG).
By comparison, Qatar’s exports to Europe did not exceed 12 billion cubic metres, or about 3.8% of total imports, and between 7% and 9% of LNG supplies.
Algeria’s advantage lies not only in the volume of supply but also in pipeline delivery, which is generally cheaper and less exposed to geopolitical risks than maritime transport.
Can Algeria compensate for the absence of Qatari gas?
As for Algeria’s ability to replace Qatari supplies, the expert says this is possible only in part, and not immediately.
European countries, particularly Italy and Spain, have already begun direct negotiations with Algeria to increase deliveries.
Madrid has discussed raising flows by up to 10% via Medgaz, while Rome is seeking higher volumes through TransMed.
Algerian exports are rising, with pipeline flows up by 22% in January 2026 and continuing to increase through March.
The country is also working to expand its LNG production, currently around 25 million tonnes per year, and is reviewing export prices in line with its economic interests.
However, Algeria faces constraints. Production facilities are operating close to full capacity, while domestic demand is growing by 3–4% annually.
Some older fields are in decline, despite new developments such as Hassi Bahmou.
On this basis, Akel estimates that any increase in Algerian supply in 2026 is likely to be between 4 and 8 billion cubic metres — less than the expected shortfall from Qatar.
The situation is further complicated by intensifying global competition for LNG, particularly from Asia.
Algeria is currently acting as a “safety valve” for Europe, but it cannot fully compensate for the loss of Qatari supply.
Europe is therefore expected to continue diversifying its sources, increasing imports from the United States — now accounting for between 25% and 56% of supply — as well as from Norway and Azerbaijan.
According to the expert, this evolving situation underlines the long-term importance of the European-Algerian partnership, particularly as Europe invests in renewable energy and green hydrogen, areas where Algeria has significant potential.
If the conflict continues, the coming summer is likely to see a further acceleration in energy agreements, as countries seek to avert a deeper crisis next winter.
