Recent economic indicators suggest that Russia is already experiencing mounting difficulties. Photo credit Sergey Kohl/Shutterstock
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has warned that Russia’s war economy is “overheated” and approaching its limits, as the European Union moves to strengthen its sanctions regime and accelerate the timetable for ending imports of Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG).
In a speech opening the EU’s political season, von der Leyen said that Moscow’s military campaign in Ukraine is being financed largely through revenues from fossil fuels, and that the bloc must act decisively to deprive the Kremlin of these funds. She argued that while Russia continues to apply pressure on Europe, the economic strain of sustaining the war is beginning to show.
LNG imports under review
Central to the Commission’s latest proposals is a plan to bring forward the prohibition of Russian LNG imports to January 1 2027, a year earlier than initially scheduled. The EU has already slashed pipeline gas deliveries from Russia, but liquefied shipments have continued to arrive at several European ports. Officials in Brussels believe cutting off this remaining supply will significantly reduce Moscow’s income while also advancing Europe’s energy security goals. Von der Leyen framed the measure as a strategic step to weaken Russia’s capacity to maintain its war effort, noting that the Kremlin’s reliance on fossil fuel exports makes it particularly vulnerable. She declared that the time has come for Europe to “turn off the tap” and show that it can sustain economic pressure for as long as necessary.
Evidence of strain in Moscow
Recent economic indicators suggest that Russia is already experiencing mounting difficulties. Inflation has climbed sharply, and the central bank has raised interest rates to around 17 per cent in an effort to stabilise the currency and contain rising prices. At the same time, Russia’s access to international capital markets remains limited, and successive EU sanctions have cut off vital supplies of high-tech equipment and financial services.
Von der Leyen described this situation as evidence that Russia’s war economy is overheating. She maintained that although Moscow has adapted by diverting trade through partner states, the overall system is under growing pressure and cannot be sustained indefinitely.
Closing loopholes
The new sanctions package also focuses on tightening enforcement to prevent circumvention. European officials are preparing measures against companies and shipping operators that have facilitated the re-export of Russian oil and gas, often through complex supply chains involving third countries. Plans are being developed to expand the blacklist of vessels associated with the so-called “shadow fleet” that Moscow uses to move its energy products outside established monitoring systems. Von der Leyen said these steps are essential to ensure that sanctions retain their bite. She urged member states to maintain unity, stressing that the EU’s strength lies in its ability to act collectively against attempts to undermine restrictions.
Support for Ukraine
Alongside sanctions, the Commission President reaffirmed Europe’s commitment to Ukraine. She praised governments for continuing to provide both financial and military assistance and called on them to remain steadfast despite domestic political and economic challenges. “Europe has shown that it can stand firm in the face of aggression,” she said. “The coming months will demand even greater resolve, but we will support Ukraine for as long as it takes.”
With the latest proposals, Brussels is signalling that it intends not only to hold its ground but also to increase the economic cost for Russia. By choking off energy revenues and tightening the enforcement of sanctions, the EU hopes to accelerate the strain on Moscow’s war economy and ultimately weaken its ability to continue the conflict.
