Good morning. Will a war-induced recession inspire CEOs to speak out against the Trump administration? Economists like Moodys’ Mark Zandi say odds of a recession are now high. We know that most U.S. CEOs disapprove of Trump’s leadership, from his administration’s policies around tariffs and immigration to its approach to science, free speech and rule of law.
While business leaders might not have wanted the U.S. to start a war against Iran right now, they’re divided about when to end it. At the annual CERAWeek gathering in Houston last week, energy leaders from Dow CEO Jim Fitterling to Chevron’s Mike Wirth warned of dire consequences if the Strait of Hormuz isn’t opened to shipping as soon as possible. But JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon said the war could mean a “better chance” of permanent peace in the Middle East, while BlackRock CEO Larry Fink predicted the war could result in prosperity or a global recession—but not much in-between.
What’s clear is that no one is winning the war at the moment. Oil prices are up more than 50%, forcing Asia to hunt for alternatives. Russia isn’t gaining much, thanks to its war with Ukraine. It’s costing U.S. taxpayers about $1 billion a day, and that doesn’t include the 10,000 jobs lost from the economic impact. The people who’ve paid the steepest price, of course, are the 3,000+ who’ve been killed and more than 4.2 million displaced, according to U.N. estimates.
At some point, there may be too much to ignore. I didn’t see much evidence of high-profile business leaders among the estimated 8 million people attending the 3,300 anti-Trump No Kings protests on Saturday. But I do see signs of mounting concerns: Chubb CEO Evan Greenberg told me last week that “democracy is so fragile,” Citadel’s Ken Griffin revealed that he and his CEO peers find the current government’s favoritism “extremely distasteful,” and more than 60 CEOs, including leaders of 3M, Best Buy, Cargill, General Mills, Land O’Lakes, Target, Xcel Energy and UnitedHealth Group signed that letter of protest against ICE actions in Minnesota. One CEO confessed to me recently that they are “shell-shocked” by the administration’s policies but feel a fiduciary duty to not put their company in harm’s way by speaking up. If the war starts to seriously impact stock prices and profits, that could change.
Contact CEO Daily via Diane Brady at diane.brady@fortune.com
Top leadership news
Prioritizing AI over people
Companies are investing heavily in AI systems but skimping on redesigning the work and leadership needed to manage human–machine collaboration. Experts from Deloitte, Wharton, and Harvard warn that this “design gap” could stall productivity gains and heighten operational and reputational risks as AI rolls out at scale.
Meta executives’ moonshot pay packages
Six top executives from Meta could receive performance-based stock option awards worth up to about $1 billion if the company hits a $9 trillion valuation target by 2031, according to SEC filings released last week. The new program bucks the norm that such moonshot packages are reserved for CEOs.
The debate over ‘AGI’ rages on’
Last week, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang claimed that AGI—artificial general intelligence—had already been achieved. Despite several leading AI companies saying they’re racing towards AGI, the term remains stubbornly amorphous, Fortune’s Jeremy Kahn reports, with AI researchers disagreeing over what the definition should be.
The markets
S&P 500 futures are up 0.53% this morning. The last session closed down 1.67%. The STOXX Europe 600 was up 0.49% in early trading. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 was up 0.65% in early trading. Japan’s Nikkei 225 was down 2.79%. China’s CSI 300 was down 0.24%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was down 0.81%. South Korea’s KOSPI was down 2.97%. India’s NIFTY 50 was down 2.02% today. Bitcoin was steady at $68K.
Around the watercooler
Anduril founder Palmer Luckey wants to arm the U.S.’s allies. Could his insistence on deferring to Washington scare them off? By Nicholas Gordon
Private equity is eying Asia’s healthcare funding gap as countries get wealthier and older by Angelica Ang
Wall Street CEO tells interns to ‘act immediately like this is 100% your full-time career’—it’s one of 20 top tips Rich Handler has for Gen Z by Emma Burleigh
The Iran war turned Mag 7 stocks into dip-buying bait. But no one is jumping in yet even though Wall Street expects U.S. tech to outperform by Eva Roytburg
CEO Daily is curated and edited by Joey Abrams, Claire Zillman and Lee Clifford.
