EL PASO, Texas (Border Report) – The Mexican border state of Chihuahua is preparing for a “worst-case scenario” due to the arrest of two top Sinaloa drug cartel leaders in the United States last week.
Chihuahua Gov. Maru Campos “told us to prepare for the worst of scenarios in case of a spike in violence from these detentions,” Public Safety Director Gilberto Loya said during an online news conference Monday. “Why prepare? Because it’s not clear what happened. (There could be) a different response from criminal groups if it was a surrender or a betrayal between cells of the same cartel.”
Simultaneously, a Virginia-based private security firm urged Americans commuting to work or traveling in Mexico in the next few days to monitor trusted sources to avoid getting caught up in unexpected street violence. The group is urging caution, through not recommending canceling vacations or business trips to Mexico yet.
Travelers “should pay attention to warnings or notices from the U.S. Embassy and consulates,” said Mike Ballard, director of intelligence for Global Guardian. “They should maintain awareness of where they are going, especially (border cities) like Tijuana and Juarez, make sure they’re not driving into an active firefight situation.”
The warnings come in response to last Thursday’s arrest in El Paso of alleged Sinaloa cartel co-founder Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada and Joaquin Guzman Lopez — the son of jailed drug lord Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzman. The two are believed to have landed at the Doña Ana County Jetport in Santa Teresa, New Mexico.
Guzman Lopez, a leader of the Chapitos faction of the cartel, has been flown to Illinois to face federal charges there. Zambada waived his initial court appearance last week and is believed to be jailed in El Paso.
How two of the most wanted fugitives of a cartel federal officials blame for being the principal exporter of fentanyl from Mexico to the U.S. ended up in custody remains a matter of much speculation.
Zambada’s lawyer in Dallas alleges Guzman Lopez kidnapped his client and denies speculation in Mexico that “El Mayo” surrendered in exchange for leniency. Zambada faces multiple drug indictments in Texas, California, New York and Washington, D.C., among others.
A perceived betrayal could permanently split the Sinaloa cartel, leading to infighting throughout Mexico and profitable border cities where drug trafficking, migrant smuggling and the illegal importation of weapons takes place, Ballard said.
It could also leave it vulnerable to incursions by the ruthless Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG).
“There are a few scenarios for violence, such as a relative power vacuum. [….] You could see CJNG trying to take advantage of perceived weakness of a rival, or cartel infighting, or Mexico taking the opportunity to arrest other members of the Zambada or Chapitos (faction),” Ballard said.
In the past, “we’ve seen burning cars and tractor-trailers, hijacking and large disruption events to prevent law enforcement from arresting people. We’ve seen cartel violence itself (with) shootings and collateral damage. Border cities are most important as a trafficking and transit point.”
Mexican lawman Loya also warned of the arrests putting in flux one of the most powerful criminal organizations in the world.
“We are preparing, we are working in cooperation with the Army, the National Guard and local police in case there’s an impact from this,” Loya said. “What impact? We could have a rearranging at the top of criminal structures for newly opened spaces. Revenge could happen if there was a betrayal. We have an obligation to guarantee the safety of Chihuahua residents and all those who may find ourselves in our state.”
Loya said Mexican law enforcement will focus on areas in Chihuahua where cells of the Sinaloa cartel are known to operate. He would not name the areas, but Border Report has identified Sinaloa cartel presence in southeast Juarez, the Chihuahua-Sonora border and the mountains in the west and southwest portion of the state.
‘El Mayo Flaco’ ready to step in for his father
Ballard agrees with other experts that the fentanyl exports that have killed tens of thousands of Americans in the past few years will continue to flow from Mexico to the U.S. despite the arrests of Zambada and Guzman Lopez.
There’s just too much money to be made supplying the U.S. demand for the popular, if oft-deadly, synthetic opioid. And there are too many people relying on income from manufacturing, transporting and selling fentanyl and other illicit drugs for them to go home after their leaders are arrested.
“Every time you see a kingpin or leader of these cartels arrested, it doesn’t really have a material impact on production, transport or trafficking of these illegal drugs, nor of the (movement) of cash, guns or human trafficking. These logistics are ongoing,” Ballard said.
He said the Zambada faction of the cartel is not rudderless. It’s likely that “El Mayito Flaco” is already running things for his father.
The Drug Enforcement Administration lists Ismael Zambada-Sicairos, 42, as a fugitive from justice wanted for drug offenses. The son of Ismael Zambada is also known as “El Mayito Flaco” (The Skinny Mayo) is considered armed and dangerous.
“The scenario that everyone fears is a larger conflict and complete split between Zambada and the Chapitos. Joaquin (Guzman) apparently told Mayo they would look at clandestine areas for labs or drug growing. The two factions clearly were working together at the highest level,” Ballard said. “You might see a disintegration of the Sinaloa cartel into two very powerful groups. There could be real violence in northwest Mexico where they have the most control [….] and (the Jalisco cartel) could look at the turmoil and try to push for control of territory.”
