Coffee prices are rising due to supply shortages and trade tensions. Here’s why your daily brew is getting more expensive
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If you’ve noticed that your morning coffee is costing more, you’re not imagining things. Coffee prices have surged to record highs, with January seeing rates climb to $310.12 (£299) per pound, up 3.5% from December and nearly 76% higher than a year ago. And the trend hasn’t stopped—by mid-February, prices had already passed $375 per pound, with no signs of stabilising anytime soon.
Bad news for coffee lovers: Brazil’s harvest struggles
So, why is your coffee getting so expensive? The main reason is a poor harvest in Brazil, the world’s largest coffee producer. Bad weather has hurt production, with Brazil now expecting to produce 51.8 million 60-kilo sacks of coffee in 2025—600,000 sacks fewer than in 2024, marking a 4.4% drop.
To make matters worse, Vietnam, the second-largest coffee producer, is also facing climate challenges, further reducing global supply. With demand for coffee still as strong as ever, prices have shot up, hitting both consumers and businesses.
Experts warn that we might not see prices ease until 2026, when Brazil is expected to have a stronger harvest. Until then, coffee is likely to remain an expensive habit.
How trade tensions could push coffee prices even higher
If supply issues weren’t enough, global trade tensions could drive prices even higher. The World Coffee Organisation has raised concerns that potential US tariffs under the Trump administration could hit major coffee exporters like Brazil, India, and Indonesia. If that happens, coffee could become even more expensive.
Right now, the United States is the biggest buyer of Brazilian coffee, importing 713,348 sacks last month alone, followed by Germany, Italy, Japan, and Belgium.
With supply tightening and political uncertainty, coffee lovers should prepare for higher prices at cafés and supermarkets for the foreseeable future. All eyes are now on Brazil’s next harvest, which will determine whether prices finally come down—or keep rising.
