The IMF may have predicted that the UK will be the fastest-growing European G7 member, but it’s not projected to be the fastest-growing European economy overall.
Misleading claims are going around on social media which suggest that the UK is projected to be the fastest-growing economy in Europe.
A raft of posts on X, for example, show people celebrating a prediction by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that UK GDP will grow by 1.6% in 2025, ahead of its neighbours.
It came as part of the IMF’s wider Global Economic Outlook for the next couple of years, in which it put projected global growth at 3.3% for both 2025 and 2026.
“The forecast for 2025 is broadly unchanged from that in the October 2024 World Economic Outlook (WEO), primarily on account of an upward revision in the United States offsetting downward revisions in other major economies,” the IMF said.
Many of the social media posts share a link or screenshot to an article by The Independent, which originally made the same claim but has now been amended.
They praise the centre-left Labour government’s handling of the UK economy and disparage supporters of the right-wing Reform and Conservative parties — the latter of which was in power for 14 years before Labour’s landslide victory last summer.
Which European economy will grow the quickest?
However, the claim that the UK is projected to be the fastest-growing European economy is wrong.
The IMF’s projections do put UK GDP growth at 1.6% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026, but there are other European countries with better predictions.
Specifically, GDP in Poland is expected to rise by 3.5% and 3.3% this year and next year, respectively.
In Spain, it will go up by 2.3% and 1.8%, and in the Netherlands, it will rise by 1.6% and 1.8%, according to the IMF projections.
What the social media posts should say, and what is reflected in the amended Independent headline after it was picked up by fact-checkers, is that the UK is set to be the fastest-growing “major” European economy.
By major, they mean among the other European members of the G7: France, Germany and Italy.
They’re expected to grow by 0.8%, 0.3% and 0.7% this year respectively. For 2026, France and Germany have predictions of 1.1% growth, while Italy’s sits at 0.9%.
The Euro area as a whole is projected to grow by 1% in 2025 and 1.4% next year, and Russia is predicted 1.4% and 1.2%.
Turkey was also one of the countries selected for analysis in the report: it’s set for 2.6% and 3.2% GDP growth in 2025 and 2026, according to the IMF.
Following the release of the global projection, Chancellor Rachel Reeves, the UK’s equivalent of finance minister, hailed the news for what it means for the British economy.
“The UK is forecast to be the fastest growing major European economy over the next two years and the only G7 economy, apart from the US, to have its growth forecast upgraded for this year,” she said.
“I will go further and faster in my mission for growth through intelligent investment and relentless reform, and deliver on our promise to improve living standards in every part of the UK through the plan for change,” Reeves added.
