Bitcoin (BTC) derivatives traders are setting new bearish records while price circles all-time highs.
The latest findings from onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant reveal the largest-ever derivatives discount ever recorded on global exchange Binance.
Bitcoin derivatives echo inflation nerves
Despite trading less than $5,000 from price discovery, BTC/USD is anything but enticing for derivatives traders.
CryptoQuant confirms that the gap between spot and derivatives pricing has never been wider.
On Jan. 24, derivatives traded at $62.40 below spot price — a standout event that contributor Darkfost attributes to macroeconomic trends.
“This change in investor behavior can be attributed to the past U.S. macroeconomic data released by the FED, highlighting projections for future rate cuts and inflation expectations,” he wrote in a Quicktake blog post.
“Things could shift as the latest inflation data came in better than expected, and if this trend continues, it could restore confidence among investors.”
The data in question includes key US inflation markers such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI), Producer Price Index (PPI) and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index, as well as regular employment figures. The next PCE release is due on Jan. 31, days after the Fed meets to decide on any changes to benchmark interest rates.
Weakness toward the end of Q4 was reflected in mixed BTC price performance, with BTC/USD frequently testing $90,000 support.
While the lack of conviction on derivatives markets suggests little willingness to take bets on short-term price moves, CryptoQuant notes that the current landscape is uncharacteristic of Bitcoin bull markets.
“Historically, during bull cycles, spot-perpetual price gaps tend to reverse and normalize to neutral territory,” Darkfost concluded.
“When the gap reaches such extreme negative levels, it often signals a strong buying opportunity, as market sentiment typically overreacts before stabilizing.”
$90,000 BTC price support remains “crucial”
While analyzing important profit levels for Bitcoin speculators more broadly, fellow CryptoQuant contributor Yonsei Dent revealed that $100,000 is not the most important support on the radar.
Related: Bitcoin bull market at risk? 7 indicators warn of BTC price ‘cycle top’
Short-term holders (STHs), defined as entities holding coins for up to six months, currently remain in profit on aggregate — and will do so as long as the BTC price stays above $96,400.
Should BTC/USD fall below this, STHs holding coins for between a week and a month will fall into net loss, with one-month to three-month investors following at $95,900.
The average cost basis for the STH cohort is just below $90,000, something Dent describes as a “critical support level.”
“As volatility continues to compress, the $89.9k level becomes increasingly pivotal,” he summarized.
“Any major price movement from here will warrant close attention, especially given the level’s importance as both a technical and on-chain support zone.”
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
