Despite an overall drop in irregular migration, the number of people crossing the border in Belaurs and Russia jumped sharply.
The number of people entering the European Union via irregular border crossings has dropped to a three-year low in 2024 according to Frontex, the bloc’s border agency.
Preliminary figures from Frontex show just over 239,000 irregular border crossings in 2024, the lowest figure since 2021, when migration was already reduced due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
In the central Mediterranean, irregular arrivals decreased by 59% whilst the Western Balkans saw a huge decrease of 78% in one year. Across Europe, the figures represent a 38% drop compared to 2023.
Vít Novotný, a researcher at the Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies, said the decrease via the central Mediterranean route is likely due to “EU support for Tunisian and Libyan authorities, who intercept boats attempting to cross into the EU.”
Collaboration between the EU and Libyan coastguards has however been controversial, with NGOs operating in the Mediterranean accusing the coastguard of using violence whilst intercepting boats at sea.
Organisations such as Médecins Sans Frontières have previously called on the EU to suspend financial and material support to the Libyan Coast Guard.
The significant decline in traffic along the Western Balkans route is “probably due to the EU’s effort to work with Western Balkan countries to align their visa policies with the EU’s policy in this area,” Novotný said.
Experts warn however that these figures should be taken with a pinch of salt, as they don’t factor in crossings that go undetected or distinguish between economic migrants and asylum seekers.
“Among those who have tried to enter what figures hide asylum seekers, people who are legitimately seeking asylum in Europe?” questions Sergio Carrera, a researcher at CEPS.
Frontex also warns that despite a drop in figures, issues such as dangerous border crossings and illegal smuggling networks persist. In 2024 alone, more than 2,300 people have disappeared or died attempting to cross the Mediterranean, according to the International Organization for Migration (IOM), a UN agency.
Search and Rescue organisation SOS Mediterranean reported that since 2014, at least 24,492 people have died while attempting to cross the central Mediterranean Sea in hopes of reaching Europe — numbers that are not accounted for in the agency’s data.
Increases
Despite an overall drop, some countries — particularly in Europe’s east — saw an increase. The Canary Islands, a Spanish archipelago off the coast of northwestern Africa, saw 18% more people crossing through irregular crossings in 2024.
Arrivals along Europe’s eastern land borders have almost tripled, particularly along Europe’s borders with Russia and Belarus. Poland, which shares a border with Belarus, has long accused Russian President Vladimir Putin of facilitating a migrant crisis along the route in order to destabilise Europe.
The issue of irregular migration has dominated European politics since 2015, when more than a million people arrived at once, many fleeing the war in Syria. Since then far-right parties have strongly opposed accepting large numbers of refugees and migrants, including in places like Austria and Germany.
