Bitcoin’s price in 2025 could rise up to four times or, at worst, increase by 58%, depending on Donald Trump’s Strategic Bitcoin Reserve plan and Federal Reserve policies, says crypto mining firm Blockware Solutions.
The 2025 “bear case” for Bitcoin (BTC) could push its price up around 58%, reaching $150,000 from its current price of $94,981, Blockware said in a Dec. 28 market forecast report viewed by Cointelegraph.
Bitcoin’s price action could play out in different ways in 2025
Blockware said that the $150,000 bear case target is a possibility if Donald Trump “does not follow through” on the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve — an outcome the industry is hopeful will happen early into his administration.
Jack Mallers, founder and CEO of Strike, said Trump will likely issue an executive order on his first day in office to designate Bitcoin as a US reserve asset.
Meanwhile, Blockware said the bear case target is also a possibility if the Federal Reserve “further reverses course” on interest rate cuts, and long-term holders — those holding BTC for longer than 155 days — “aggressively” sell Bitcoin.
As a “base case,” $225,000 is Blockware’s target, assuming the US government turns its Bitcoin holdings into a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, the Fed cuts interest rates as expected, and corporate adoption continues at its “current pace.”
Blockware stated that a $400,000 “bull case” Bitcoin price is possible if the three factors align.
First, the Federal Reserve must adopt “a more dovish stance” as headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) declines.
Second, corporate Bitcoin adoption must accelerate, with one of the “Magnificent 7” companies — Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Nvidia, or Tesla — adding Bitcoin to their balance sheet.
US gov’t must accumulate BTC to reach $400K target
One of those companies, Microsoft, had its shareholders vote against a resolution to add Bitcoin to the company’s balance sheets during the firm’s annual meeting on Dec. 10.
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Finally, the US government would not only have to convert its existing holdings into a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve but also accumulate more Bitcoin — an outcome that Galaxy Digital recently said is unlikely.
“The US government will not purchase Bitcoin in 2025,” Galaxy Research head of research Alex Thorn said in a Dec. 27 report.
Thorn said that instead, the US government will create a stockpile using Bitcoin, which it already holds, while discussions on a Bitcoin reserve policy will continue.
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