Saylor doubts $60K Bitcoin retrace, BTC ETF options, and more: Hodler’s Digest, Nov. 10 – 16

Top Stories of The Week

Bitcoin will not fall to $60K with no ‘threats in the near-term’ — Michael Saylor

MicroStrategy founder and Bitcoin bull Michael Saylor has ruled out the chances of Bitcoin retracing to $60,000 — a crucial price level for the majority of 2024.

“I don’t think it is going to $60,000, it is not going to $30,000, I think it is going to go up from here,” Saylor told CNBC on Nov. 14. Bitcoin is trading around $87,790, according to CoinMarketCap.

He said Donald Trump’s win “very decidedly” settled the future of crypto and Bitcoin in the United States, adding, “I don’t really see any threats on the near-term horizon.”

“I’m planning the $100,000 party,” Saylor said. “I’m thinking it’s probably going to be New Year’s Eve at my house, so I would be surprised if we don’t go through $100,000 in November or December.” 

NY prosecutor suggests office will scale back crypto cases

A prosecutor with the United States Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of New York (SDNY) has suggested that authorities are devoting fewer resources to bringing cases involving cryptocurrency-related crimes.

Speaking at the Practicing Law Institute’s 56th Annual Institute on Securities Regulation on Nov. 15, Scott Hartman reportedly said there would not be “as much crypto stuff coming out of at least the SDNY in the future.” Hartman, the co-chief of the Securities and Commodities Fraud Task Force at SDNY, hinted that many of its criminal cases against high-profile executives like former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried were filed in response to the crypto market downturn of 2022.

“We brought a lot of big cases in the wake of the crypto winter,” said Hartman. “There were a lot of important fraud cases to bring there, but we know our regulatory partners are very active in this space.”

Bitcoin to hit ‘repeated all-time highs’ over next 2 quarters: VanEck

Bitcoin’s record-breaking rise since the United States elections is expected to continue, and investment manager and fund issuer VanEck is targeting a price of $180,000 for sometime next year.

“It is just getting started,” VanEck’s head of digital assets research, Matthew Sigel, told CNBC’s Squawk Box on Nov. 14.

“We’re now in blue sky territory, no technical resistance, and we think we are likely to make repeated all-time highs over the next two quarters,” he added.

Bitcoin has risen about 30% since Nov. 5, leading a wider crypto rally after the pro-crypto Donald Trump was elected president. It’s continued to reach new highs, with its current peak set on Nov. 13, hitting almost $93,490, per TradingView.

Bitcoin’s rally has slightly cooled as of Nov. 15, with it trading around $88,100.

Dogecoin investor lawsuit against Elon Musk dropped

A 2022 class-action lawsuit filed against Elon Musk and Tesla — alleging that the businessman manipulated the price of Dogecoin through media appearances and social media posts — was withdrawn by the plaintiffs on Nov. 14, 2024.

According to the legal filing, the plaintiffs have agreed to withdraw their appeal from the Second Circuit Court of Appeals and not seek any post-judgment relief from Musk and the automotive company.

Lawyers for the investors also waived their right to appeal the case in any United States court, and both sides have agreed to drop motions to sanction the other side over the lawsuit.

The motion to withdraw the class-action lawsuit must still be approved by United States District Judge Alvin K. Hellerstein before the two-year-old litigation officially concludes.

Bitcoin ETF options pass ‘second hurdle’ with CFTC clearance

The United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has issued a notice, “clearing the way” for spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) options. Analysts are now speculating the products could be listed imminently.

“Ball now in OCC’s court, and they are into it, so they’ll prob list very soon,” ETF analyst Eric Balchunas wrote in a Nov. 15 X post.

“Here. We. Go,” ETF analyst James Seyffart added.

The CFTC’s Nov. 16 statement announced the Division of Clearing and Risk’s position “that the CFTC does not have any more role regarding the clearing of these options.”

“These ETF options are cleared and settled by the Options Clearing Corporation as the sole issuer of all equity options,” it stated.

Crypto executives are optimistic it could have a major impact on Bitcoin’s price.

Winners and Losers

At the end of the week, Bitcoin (BTC) is at $91,274, Ether (ETH) at $3,097 and XRP at $0.90. The total market cap is at $3.02 trillion, according to CoinMarketCap.

Among the biggest 100 cryptocurrencies, the top three altcoin gainers of the week are Peanut the Squirrel (PNUT) at 1,826.99%, Pepe (PEPE) at 106.64% and Bonk (BONK) at 104.43%.

The top three altcoin losers of the week are Monero (XMR) at 14.37%, Aave (AAVE) at 9.03% and Celestia (TIA) at 7.56%. For more info on crypto prices, make sure to read Cointelegraph’s market analysis.

Most Memorable Quotations

“We’ve been living in a gas-lit world for a long time, generously gas-lit by the SEC.”

Joseph Lubin, CEO of Consensys

“I look forward to Elon and Vivek making changes to the Federal Bureaucracy with an eye on efficiency and, at the same time, making life better for all Americans.”

Donald Trump, United States President-elect

“We’re now in blue sky territory, no technical resistance, and we think we are likely to make repeated all-time highs over the next two quarters.”

Matthew Sigel, head of digital assets research at VanEck

“I think it would be very smart for the United States to take the Bitcoin it has, maybe add some to it, and say we want to show the world that we’re going to be a technology-first country — a crypto, a digital asset-first country. I don’t necessarily think the dollar needs anything to back it up.”

Mike Novogratz, founder of Galaxy Digital

“After being a laggard for most of this cycle Ethereum is starting to catch a bid.”

Rachael Lucas, crypto analyst at BTC Markets

“We look forward to standing up for ourselves and our community and continuing to help everyday people understand important world events.”

Polymarket spokesperson

Prediction of The Week

Bitcoin price can hit $100K by Thanksgiving if bulls hold key level

Keith Alan, co-founder of trading resource Material Indicators, said that a return to the mid-$80,000 range might ultimately be cathartic for BTC price strength.

“A retest of support at $86k would be healthy for $BTC, and it will give us some insight as to whether the velocity of this “TrumpPump can be sustained for a soonish run at $100k or if momentum is going to cool off for more than 5 minutes,” he told X followers.

Later, Alan suggested that Bitcoin could hit its ultimate psychological target — $100,000 — as soon as the Thanksgiving holiday on Nov. 28.

To do so, however, it needed to preserve a rising short-term trend line.

“If support fails at the line, price will search for support in the $75k – $76k range,” he warned.

FUD of The Week

Helix mixer operator gets 3 years in prison for money laundering

Larry Harmon, who was arrested in 2020 for helping criminals launder money through the Helix cryptocurrency mixer, has been sentenced to three years in prison. The sentence was a show of leniency due to his assistance in the Bitcoin Fog mixer case, District of Columbia District Court Judge Beryl Howell said.

Harmon faced a sentence of up to 20 years for the charges against him. The government had recommended a sentence of 75 months on Nov. 11. Harmon was fined $60 million by the Treasury Department’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network in 2020.

Harmon helped prosecutors in the case against Bitcoin Fog operator Roman Sterlingov, who was sentenced to 12.5 years in prison on Nov. 8. Harmon expressed remorse at his sentencing. He had also shut down Helix two years before his arrest, the judge noted while passing sentence on him. “He turned himself around before he was arrested in this case,” she said.

Harmon was also ordered to forfeit roughly $311 million in cash and “seized cryptocurrencies, real estate, and monetary assets valued at over $400 million.”

South Korea probes Upbit for 600K KYC violations

Major South Korean cryptocurrency exchange Upbit is reportedly suspected of massive breaches in Know Your Customer (KYC) procedures amid its local license renewal.

South Korea’s Financial Intelligence Unit of the Financial Services Commission has identified at least 500,000 to 600,000 potential KYC violations by the Upbit exchange, local news agency Maeil Business Newspaper reported on Nov. 14.

The authority reportedly spotted alleged customer verification breaches while reviewing the renewal of Upbit’s business license, potentially affecting the exchange’s operations.

In South Korea, cryptocurrency exchanges or virtual asset service providers are obligated to establish strict KYC procedures.

Bitfinex hacker sentenced to 5 years in prison

Ilya Lichtenstein, the hacker who stole billions worth of Bitcoin from the crypto exchange Bitfinex in 2016, was sentenced to five years in prison.

Washington, DC, District Court Judge Colleen Kollar-Kotelly sentenced Lichtenstein in a Nov. 14 hearing after he pleaded guilty to conspiracy to commit money laundering in August 2023. In addition to jail time, Lichtenstein was ordered to serve three years of supervised release.

Lichtenstein was facing up to 20 years in jail, but prosecutors had recommended he serve five years as he had no prior criminal history, gave “substantial assistance” in other investigations and managed to launder only 25,111 Bitcoin out of the 119,754 BTC he stole from Bitfinex, currently worth over $10.4 billion with the cryptocurrency priced around $87,500.

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