By Koh Gui Qing and Kevin Buckland
NEW YORK/LONDON (Reuters) – Shares on Wall Street scaled record highs on Thursday, lifting stock markets around the world, while U.S. Treasuries yields retreated as investors processed a second Donald Trump presidency and awaited a Federal Reserve policy decision.
The Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the end of its policy meeting on Thursday, a decision that may seem a footnote given the uncertain economic terrain it may soon navigate under a second Trump administration.
“We think it more likely that the Federal Open Market Committee cuts by 25 bps, signalling that pauses could be appropriate at future meetings if inflation prospects deteriorate,” said Steve Englander, head of global G10 foreign exchange research and north America macro strategy.
The rose 0.5%, the added 0.12%, and the jumped 1.1%. All three indices hit new all-time highs for a second consecutive day. [.N] The MSCI index for world stocks climbed 0.8%, also to a record high.
Europe’s broad index was last up 0.8% after Asian shares gained earlier in the day, with even onshore Chinese blue chips rising 3% as investor optimism over potential stimulus outweighed concerns about worsening trade tensions. [.SS] ()
Stocks are “rewarding the presumed likelihood of corporate tax cuts and perceiving a general penchant toward deregulation across industries as positive for earnings,” said Naomi Fink, chief global strategist at Nikko Asset Management.
“On the other hand, bond markets have responded unfavourably, with yields rising on the prospect of a united front between executive and legislative arms of government with respect to fiscal expansion.”
“This comes at a time when U.S. debt-to-GDP is already at historic highs near 120% and budget deficits already exceed 6% of GDP,” she said.
The benchmark 10-year yield was last at 4.3628%, down 6.3 basis points on the day, after a 14 basis point rise on Wednesday, and the 30-year yield was last at 4.5576%, down over 4 bps after the previous day’s 15 bp jump. [US/]
The dollar fell 0.9% against a basket of its peers after logging its biggest one-day gain in more than two years on Wednesday. Traders said they were closing out profitable bets on the Trump presidency and ahead of the Fed’s decision. [USD/]
The euro climbed 0.9% to $1.0824 after Wednesday’s 1.8% fall, as investors also digested political turmoil in Germany where Chancellor Olaf Scholz sacked his Finance Minister Christian Lindner, causing the ruling three-party coalition to collapse and setting the stage for a snap election. [FRX/]
Deutsche Bank (ETR:) analysts said, while it was too early to say, the developments could be positive for the euro due to the potential confidence boost from a more stable German government and the direct economic effects of a potentially more pro-active fiscal stance.
Germany’s 10 year government bond yield was last up 2 basis points at 2.414%.
CENTRAL BANK DECISIONS
The day’s main scheduled macro economic event is the Federal Reserve meeting later in the day. Markets were still confident of a 25 basis-point cut, but slightly reduced bets on further easing in December.
Longer term, Trump’s proposed tariffs and immigration policies risk stoking inflation, potentially hampering the path to lower rates.
In advance of the Fed, the Bank of England cut interest rates by a quarter point on Thursday for only the second time since 2020, but said future reductions were likely to be gradual, as it saw higher inflation after the new government’s first budget last week.
Sterling extended its gains slightly after the decision, and was last up 1% at $1.3006, following a 1.24% slide on Wednesday. [GBP/]
Central banks in Norway and Sweden also held meetings on Thursday, though they met markets expectations and did little to disrupt currency markets. Norges Bank at the hawkish end of the developed market spectrum kept rates unchanged at a 16-year high, and Sweden’s Riksbank cut by 50 bps.
caught its breath on Thursday, easing 0.3% to $75,408, following its vault to a record high $76,499.99 overnight. Trump had vowed to make the United States “the crypto capital of the planet”.
Gold added 1.5%, following Wednesday’s more than 3% tumble, to $2,698.14 an ounce. However, that was still not far from its recent record high of $2,790.15. [GOL/]
Oil slipped, extending a sell-off triggered by the U.S. presidential election, as a strong dollar and lower crude imports in China outweighed supply risks from a Trump presidency and output cuts caused by Hurricane Rafael.[O/R]
futures fell 0.7% to $74.42 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude shed 0.7% to $71.19. [O/R]
