Ether (ETH), Ethereum’s native token, is on track to post its first October loss since 2018, having fallen 5.40% month-to-date to reach $2,475 on Oct. 27.
The decline is driven by intensifying competition from newer smart contract platforms like Solana (SOL) and the tepid market response to Ethereum-based spot ETFs.
However, there are growing signs that Ether might be set for a turnaround, with several indicators pointing to a potential recovery toward $6,000.
Ether holds support that last preceded 160% gains
Ether is currently holding above a crucial support level at around $2,400. This price coincides with the lower trendline of ETH’s multimonth ascending channel pattern, which has historically preceded sharp price recoveries, including the cryptocurrency’s 160%-plus rebound between October 2023 and March 2024.
If the $2,400 support remains intact, Ethereum may target the channel’s upper boundary in the coming months, which lies near the $6,000 mark.
Adding to the bullish outlook, Ether’s weekly relative strength index (RSI) has also bounced off a historical support zone, which aligns with ETH’s test of the channel’s lower trendline.
ETH price movements have rebounded from similar support levels in the past, resulting in sharp upward moves.
$1.3B in ETH exits Coinbase
A recent surge in Ethereum outflows from Coinbase suggests a potential wave of institutional interest, according to data shared by CryptoQuant analyst Burak Kesmeci.
On Oct. 25, in just one hour, an anonymous entity withdrew 543,000 ETH—valued at over $1.3 billion—from the crypto exchange, marking one of the largest movements of Ether in the past three months.
Such large-scale transfers are often seen as signals of institutional activity. When major players move substantial amounts of cryptocurrency off exchanges, it typically indicates a shift toward longer-term holding strategies, possibly foreshadowing bullish sentiment.
Kesmeci noted that Ether’s massive outflows could be a precursor to its price rally, citing another transaction from August 2024 in which 681,100 ETH worth $1.8 billion exited the Coinbase exchange.
“This being the second such outflow in three months strongly suggests the possibility of growing institutional interest.”
Ethereum eyeing key reversals versus top rivals
Ethereum’s potential rise to $6,000 may receive further push from rotations out of its top rivals, namely Bitcoin (BTC) and Solana.
From a technical perspective, Ether is now trading around its all-time ascending trendline support against Bitcoin, which, coupled with its oversold RSI, can enable a sharp price rebound in the coming months.
Analyst Crypto Avails further highlights that the ETH/BTC’s previous bounces from the said trendline support have coincided with the beginning of “altcoin season,” a phase when alternative cryptocurrencies outperform Bitcoin.
“The strengthening of ETH against BTC results in the rise of altcoins,” the X user noted, adding,
“Altcoins are currently very cheap and will soon forget these levels.”
Ethereum versus Solana further hints at capital rotation
Ethereum’s next top rival, Solana, has surged by approximately 900% in the SOL/ETH trading pair from June 2023. As of Oct. 27, SOL/ETH had established a new record high at 0.0710 ETH.
Nonetheless, the pair’s weekly RSI has jumped above 70, signaling that it has become overvalued. In other words, Solana may have gone up too quickly against Ether and could face downward pressure.
Related: The real flippening? Solana price hits new record high against Ethereum
The bearish divergence in SOL/ETH, coupled with falling RSI and volumes, indicates weakening buying pressure and a likely price correction. Historically, overbought conditions have led SOL/ETH to fall toward its 50-week EMA, suggesting a potential 35% decline.
The convergence of these capital rotations creates a favorable environment for Ethereum to push toward the $6,000 target by the year’s end of early 2025.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
