Former President Trump’s 20-point lead over Vice President Kamala Harris on Polymarket has sparked manipulation concerns. Tarek Mansour — the founder of the Kalshi prediction market — recently argued that these results were accurate and not the result of inorganic manipulation by presenting comparable data from Kalshi.
Mansour began by dispelling the media claim that a handful of large whales are skewing the odds in favor of Trump. According to the Kalshi founder, “The median bet size on Harris is larger than the median bet size on Donald Trump,” with the median bet size for Harris coming in at $85 compared to Trump’s $58.
The founder also explained that more individuals on the Kalshi platform are placing bets on Trump, and the 20-point lead reflected on Polymarket roughly tracks with the number of individuals betting Trump will win the November election on Kalshi.
Mansour continued by noting that Kalshi is an “American-only” prediction market — unlike Polymarket — countering popular claims that the current prediction market odds are the result of foreign manipulation. The Kalshi founder concluded his argument by asserting that “Prediction markets are the new source of truth, free from bias.”
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The new source of truth and a public good?
Industry executives and political pundits have hotly debated the value of prediction markets and their utility over traditional polling. Figures like billionaire Elon Musk believe prediction markets are more accurate than polls.
Musk argued that results are far more accurate when money is on the line. However, critics point out that because individuals inside the United States are not allowed to use Polymarket, it does raise some concerns about the validity of the results from that particular prediction platform.
Vice President Harris was leading Trump on Polymarket for portions of August and much of September. Even when Trump managed to gain the lead, it was typically by a few percentage points. However, during the first half of October, the former President began sharply increasing his odds of securing the Oval Office on the prediction platform.
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