After two and a half years of fighting a war on their own soil, Ukrainian forces are continuing to advance within Russia, as their surprise invasion of the Kursk region enters its third week.
Beginning early on Aug. 6, Ukraine quickly broke through thinly manned border defenses and has now captured dozens of Russian towns and villages, adding a new twist to a war that had largely settled into grueling, block-by-block fighting in towns in eastern Ukraine.
Source: Institute for the Study of War with American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project
Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk brought about one of the largest territorial changes since the first month of the war, when Russia rapidly advanced toward major Ukrainian cities. The head of Ukraine’s armed forces, Gen. Oleksandr Syrsky, has claimed that Ukraine is in control of about 490 square miles of Russian territory.
If confirmed, that would represent roughly the same amount of land that Russian forces seized in Ukraine from January through July of this year, according to the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank.
President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine has said that the aim is to create a “buffer zone” inside Russia alongside the border. He has given no specifics about the size of the area his military is aiming to seize.
This week, Ukraine struck bridges across the Seym River, a move that military analysts say could trap Russian troops between the river and the border with Ukraine.
Source: Institute for the Study of War with American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project (claimed extent of Ukrainian advance)
At least three bridges have been damaged, which The Times was able to independently verify through satellite imagery and videos posted to social media.
It is unclear how many Russian troops are in the area, but satellite imagery from Planet Labs, a commercial satellite company, shows that Russia has built temporary pontoon bridges to allow its vehicles to continue to cross the river. One could be seen east of the town of Glushkovo on Aug. 17, with vehicle tracks visible nearby. Another was visible further along the river, just north of Glushkovo, on Aug. 21.
On Wednesday, Ukraine released videos of its forces striking these Russian pontoon bridges in Kursk with U.S.-supplied weapons.
Although Ukraine’s advances have slowed since the first days of its incursion, it continues to push forward, according to imagery verified by the Institute for the Study of War.
Satellite imagery from Planet Labs shows that Russia has built new defensive fortifications around 20 miles from Ukrainian positions in Kursk, near the E38 highway. The fortifications include trenches for troops to fire from, and anti-tank ditches, such as the one shown below.
While the Ukrainian military is gaining ground in Russia, it is losing it back home. The Russian offensive in eastern Ukraine is building momentum.
Russian troops are less than 10 miles from Pokrovsk, putting them in artillery range of the city, which had a population of about 40,000 before the war began and is a key transport hub. To the northeast, Russian troops are on the doorstep of Toretsk, and control most of Niu-York, footage verified by the Institute for the Study of War shows.
Military analysts say that one of Ukraine’s likely objectives in invading Kursk was to force Russia to divert troops away from eastern Ukraine to fight in Kursk, but so far the Kremlin has resisted. Instead, it has brought in reinforcements mainly from elsewhere in Russia, prioritizing its military objectives in Ukraine over a rapid response to the foreign incursion.
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