The U.S. 10-year Treasury rose on Thursday as dovish minutes from the latest Federal Reserve meeting and a large revision lower in preliminary payrolls data bolstered expectations of an interest rate cut next month.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury was up more than 2 basis points at 3.799%, while the yield on the 2-year Treasury was roughly 1 basis point higher at 3.929%.
Yields and prices move in opposite directions. One basis point equals 0.01%.
Market participants are firmly pricing in an interest rate cut at the U.S. central bank’s next meeting. Traders are currently pricing in a roughly 66% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut in September, with just over one-third pricing in a 50-basis-point rate cut, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.
It comes shortly after the summary of minutes from the Fed’s July meeting said that the “vast majority” of participants “observed that, if the data continued to come in about as expected, it would likely be appropriate to ease policy at the next meeting.”
Investors on Wednesday also reacted to a significant downward revision to U.S. hiring figures, which showed there were 818,000 fewer jobs than originally reported in the 12-month period through March 2024.
Attention now turns to comments made at the annual Jackson Hole symposium that kicks off on Thursday. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak on Friday.
On the data front, the latest reading of weekly initial jobless claims will be released at around 8:30 a.m. ET on Thursday.
A flash reading of manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for August and services PMI for August, existing home sales data for July and the Kansas City Fed’s survey for August will all follow slightly later in the session.
— CNBC’s Alex Haring, Sophie Kiderlin & Jesse Pound contributed to this report.
