How 1,000 Ukraine Troops Entered 30 Km Into Russia, What They Plan Next

Ukrainian ground troops and mechanized forces crossed the international border, advancing over 30 kilometres into Russian territory in one of the most significant developments in the ongoing war between the two countries. The Ukrainian troops, estimated to be over 1,000, moved from the Sumy Oblast region of north-east Ukraine and have taken over Kursk Oblast of Russia.

Ukraine’s incursion caught Russia off-guard, which is now scrambling troops to stop the advance. Kyiv conducted intense artillery and drone attacks along with the movement of mechanized troops into enemy territory.

The Institute for Study of War (ISW), a non-profit, geolocated the positions of Ukrainian troops through open-source videos and pictures of the operation and marked the territories that have witnessed Ukrainian advance. The blue region indicates the areas where Ukrainians have entered.

Russia has scrambled its troops to stop the further incursion of Ukrainians. The objective of the Ukrainian operation is unclear, but ever since the war began in February 2022, Kyiv’s operation appears to be the biggest challenge Putin’s Russia has faced. 

Ukraine has been largely silent on the offensive. Meanwhile, Russia has announced a “federal emergency” and has scrambled troops to defend the area.

Geolocating Ukrainian Advance

ISW said the advance of the Ukrainian mechanized troops comprising tanks, infantry and armoured vehicles almost 35 km into Russia was “rapid”, but ISW said it does not appear that the Ukrainians most certainly “do not control that area”. 

Russian conscripts, the FSB border guards and elements of Chechen “Akhmat” units, a motorized unit operating in the Chechen Republic and fighting for Russia, are operating in the Kursk region and built field fortifications along the border. They were breached by the Ukrainian troops. Based on the information accessed by ISW, as of August 8, Ukrainian troops are located in Sverdlikovo, Sudhza, Malaya and Lyubimovka. 

Vladimir Putin has called the incursion a “large-scale provocation” by Kyiv, and Russia’s top general has vowed to crush it. Meanwhile, a Chechen Akhmat unit official said, “The situation is not irreversible. Nothing supernatural happened, yes, our people died, that’s a fact. The enemy has entered several settlements,” said General Apti Alaudinov, a close ally of Chechen dictator Ramzan Kadyrov and commander of Akhmat special forces.

Russian military bloggers claim that the Ukrainian troops are advancing in small units from Russia’s rear and bypassing their fortifications before engaging Russian forces and then withdrawing from the engagements without attempting to consolidate control over their furthest advances.

The new frontline in Russia is far from other areas where intense fighting has taken place since the war began. Significant fighting took place in eastern Ukraine, a major chunk of which is claimed to be under Russian control. In the east, Donetsk, Luhansk and Horlivka had been under Russian control before the war began two years ago. The Russian troops have advanced further west from these regions and control a frontline which runs northeast to south of Ukraine. 

According to the ISW’s map, the red line indicates the Russian advance in Ukraine and the black dotted lines toward Russian control of Ukrainian territory before the war began.

Ukrainian drones targeted residential buildings in the border regions of Kursk, Voronezh and Belgorod. Combatants from Ukraine have made several brief incursions into Russia since the beginning of the conflict in February 2022.

Russia Scrambles Troops

Russian military experts have slammed officials for not detecting the incursions in the first place. The Ukrainian offensive has entered its third day. Russia initially scrambled air and artillery units to repel the attacks but failed to stop the advance. 

Russia’s defence ministry said it is sending columns of military hardware, including rocket launchers, artillery, tanks and heavy trucks to reinforce its defences in the area. 

Russia carried out artillery strikes on a supermarket in eastern Ukraine’s Kostyantynivka. The attack is Russia’s response to the Ukrainian advance. The shelling killed ten people and wounded 35. Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky has vowed to take revenge for the attack.

“Russia will be held accountable for this terror, and we will do our best to ensure that the world continues to stand with Ukraine in supporting our defense and saving the lives of our people,” Zelensky said on X.

Kostyantynivka, Donetsk region. Russian terrorists hit an ordinary supermarket and a post office. There are people under the rubble. A rescue operation is underway, and everything will be done to save them.

At the moment, it’s known that four people have been killed. My… pic.twitter.com/Sd9vrGTHTc

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) August 9, 2024

Kostyantynivka has witnessed attacks in the past and Russian shelling is a usual occurrence. 

Incursion To Gain Leverage?

Kharkiv in Ukraine has been a major flashpoint between the troops and has witnessed intense battles in the past. In May, Russia launched a new offensive in the region, taking significant territory in Kharkiv. The attacks saw Russia dropping 1,000 kg guided bombs on a hardware store in which 16 were killed.

Last year, Ukrainian troops launched a major counteroffensive to reclaim Kharkiv, which almost reached the border of Russia. Kharkiv has party occupied by Russia since the war began on February 24, 2022. 

The Russian-controlled territory lies very close to the international border and is several kilometres north of Kharkiv city, Ukraine’s second-largest city. Ukraine’s ongoing incursion in Kursk could be a way to gain leverage on the negotiation table for a truce in areas by forcing the enemy to pull troops from other areas to reinforce the frontline. The Ukrainian objective remains unclear. 

US National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said Washington was “reaching out to our Ukrainian counterparts to get a little better understanding”. He added “Nothing has changed about our policy” and Ukraine can use US-supplied weapons only “to target imminent threats just across the border”.

US State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said of the Kremlin: “It is a little bit rich, them calling it a provocation, given Russia violated Ukraine’s territorial integrity and sovereignty.”