Summer is just around the corner, and all signs point to it being a travel season like no other.
Anyone planning a transatlantic journey in the coming months will find those signs particularly concerning. Well-publicized glitches at EU entry points have occurred as Schengen nations this month transitioned to a digital border system. And officials have signaled that there’s a strong possibility that European airlines and airports could run out of jet fuel, as the Iran conflict drags on and cuts the flow of oil from the closed-off Strait of Hormuz.
In mid-April, the head of the International Energy Agency, Fatih Birol, warned that it could take six weeks before airport fuel pumps go dry. If that time frame holds, many passengers heading to Europe could feel the impact soon after Memorial Day. Asia, Latin America, and Africa are also at risk of a similar shortage-induced crisis, cautioned Willie Walsh, who heads the International Air Transport Association (IATA).
But experts are divided on how serious the shortage is and how long it could last, with some pointing out that certain areas of the world, like the U.S., aren’t experiencing fuel shortages. That’s small comfort, of course, for those who are planning to travel outside the U.S.
Already, some carriers have proactively cut schedules: Lufthansa is shaving some 20,000 flights from its roster through October, although mainly on shorter intra-European routes. KLM said it would reduce frequencies on routes to major hubs like London. There are also reports that some smaller airports on the European continent are rationing jet fuel, and one airline, Spain’s Volotea, has taken the controversial step of retroactively imposing fuel surcharges on tickets that have already been booked.
Other airlines may follow. IATA’s Walsh said in an interview that even a quick end to the war and a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz would not end the jet fuel crisis: “It will still take a period of months to get back to where the supply needs to be.”
Gordon Ho, a professor at the Marshall School of Business at the University of Southern California, told Afar that European airlines “are much more vulnerable to supply shortages” than their U.S. counterparts, as they import 30 to 40 percent of their jet fuel. He said that other than simply canceling flights, carriers are taking steps like reducing capacity on less profitable routes, increasing fares, and adding surcharges.
“Ultimately, we could see the impacts of this fuel supply shortage through the entire summer and beyond, depending on the length of the fuel disruption,” he said. “Jet fuel prices have doubled across the world, and we can expect continued price increases and fuel surcharges on carriers globally.”
He points out that even if there is no shortage of jet fuel here in the U.S., it still costs more to fill up the plane, and we’ve already seen airlines pass some of those costs on to travelers in the form of checked baggage fee hikes.
Others see this as a temporary setback. “It’s a problem right now, but it is a short-term problem. Six months from now, I don’t think we’ll be talking about it,” said Michael Derchin, a longtime Wall Street airline analyst, and founder of Derchin Airline Research.
He said that’s in part because the stronger airlines will take steps to absorb the fuel price shock. “They will adjust by cutting capacity,” he said, noting that, of course, “that’s bad for the consumer because when they cut capacity, fares go up and it’s going to be more expensive to travel.”
In the case of fuel shortages, which could lead to cancellations, airlines have more advance warning of the problem than they do of disruptions due to the usual culprits, such as strikes, tech woes, or bad weather. Even so, to protect against getting stranded, the usual rules apply: Sign up in advance for flight alerts, insure your trip, and know your rights for travel in the EU, where there are stronger compensation requirements than in the U.S.
“An airline cannot simply cancel your flight and say, ‘sorry, we can’t afford to run it, we haven’t got enough fuel—here’s your fare back,’” travel expert and columnist Simon Calder wrote in a recent post in The Independent. “If you’re flying with a European airline or from anywhere in Europe, they must find you an alternative way to get to your destination on the same day if at all possible.”
Ultimately, then, it’ll be up to consumers to decide whether it’s worth the added expense—and risk. “Yes, some people may be considering whether to give Europe a pass this year,” said Joe Brancatelli, who runs the travel website Joesentme.com.
And not all European airlines are raising the alarm. Wizz Air, a Hungarian budget carrier, is downplaying the impending jet fuel crisis, instead arguing that the right strategy is to slash prices to lure hesitant customers.
Other sources are pointing out that European carriers could turn to the U.S. for jet fuel if they get really close to running out, but it’ll be a lot more expensive.
That said, airlines are still reporting strong demand for premium travel across the pond, said Brancatelli, which suggests that others are weighing the costs and the risks and going ahead with their plans. The bumpy rollout of the implementation of the new digital border system is less of a factor, he said, in part because some airports, like Amsterdam Airport Schiphol, simply shut down the glitch-prone kiosks when lines grew unacceptably long.
As for the most price-sensitive travelers, Brancatelli’s advice is to keep your eyes open for good deals. Just recently, he said, Air France and KLM posted an “unusual” offer of 10,000 bonus miles for anyone who books an economy ticket from the U.S. by May 3.
If travelers take a wait-and-see approach on Europe travel and the demand for flights slows, there could be a silver lining, with more airfare deals in coach—that is, if the jet fuel crisis eases up.
