“Price rises since the conflict began have been modest, driven mainly by higher oil prices and cushioned by ample global cereal supplies,” FAO Chief Economist Maximo Torero said in a statement.
But if the conflict lasts over 40 days and input costs remain high, farmers may reduce inputs, plant less, or switch crops to less intensive fertiliser crops, he said. “Those choices will hit future yields and shape our food supply and commodity prices for the rest of this year and all of the next,” he added. The FAO Food Price Index, which measures changes in a basket of globally traded food commodities, rose by 2.4% from its revised February level. It is 1% above its value a year ago, although nearly 20% below its March 2022 peak, reached after the start of the war in Ukraine.
FERTILISER COSTS COULD LEAD TO REDUCED PLANTING
The cereal price index increased by 1.5% from the previous month, led by a 4.3% increase in international wheat prices due to worsening crop prospects in the U.S. and expectations of lower plantings in Australia due to higher fertiliser costs.
Global maize prices edged up as ample global supply offset concerns over fertiliser costs, and indirect support from greater ethanol demand prospects linked to higher energy prices. Rice prices dropped 3.0% due to harvest timing and weaker import demand.
