In its latest note, Jefferies flagged that tariff hikes could be pushed back as the much-awaited Jio IPO may be delayed beyond the first half of calendar 2026 due to regulatory overhang.
“The chances of a tariff hike by June 2026 are low,” the report said, citing two key reasons, a potential rise in inflation driven by higher energy prices and the fact that “even after six months since Sebi approved reducing the minimum stake-sale requirement for large IPOs to 2.5%, the final gazette notification has not yet been issued.”
Jefferies warned that this could “potentially delay Jio’s IPO beyond 1HCY26, which in turn could push back tariff hikes,” prompting it to assume only a single 15% sectoral tariff hike in December 2026 and cut Bharti’s India mobile ARPU and EBITDA forecasts accordingly.
The second key drag on the target price is Bharti’s surprise foray into the NBFC business, which the brokerage said has raised “concerns over capital allocation” and weighed on the stock despite earnings upgrades.
Bharti shares are down 14% so far in 2026, underperforming the Nifty50 by about 5 percentage points, with Jefferies noting that the “bulk of the price decline” came after the NBFC announcement, even though FY27-28 consensus revenue and EBITDA estimates have seen upgrades of up to 1% over the same period.
The company plans to infuse Rs 14,000 crore into the new lending venture (Rs 20,000 crore from the Bharti group), which would position it among the top NBFCs by net worth in a market “dominated by a few firms that have consolidated market share in recent years.”Jefferies estimates the NBFC could add around 3% to Bharti’s current market price in the best-case scenario (at 4x price-to-book) and erode about 1% in the worst case (0x price-to-book), but stressed that “further such moves in the future can’t be ruled out.”
To reflect the twin risks of Jio IPO/tariff-hike timing and Bharti’s capital allocation into financial services, Jefferies has cut its target EV/EBITDA multiple for Bharti’s India operations to 12x from 13x.
This de-rating, combined with lower revenue and earnings assumptions, results in an 8–11% cut to FY27-28 earnings estimates, even as the brokerage continues to factor in 13–14% CAGR in India revenues and EBITDA and sees Bharti’s India EBITDA (ex-tower) ranging between Rs 920-1,245 billion by FY28, depending on tariff and margin trends.
“Despite the earnings revisions, Bharti Airtel offers a strong 13–14% CAGR in India revenues and EBITDA,” Jefferies said, adding that based on a valuation range of 9.5–13.5x EV/EBITDA, its fair value band of Rs 1,570–2,890 per share implies “59% upside and 13% downside — making the risk-reward extremely favourable.”
The brokerage reiterated its Buy rating on the stock.
