Oil prices eased ahead of another round of talks between the United States and Iran due in Geneva on Thursday, with the risk of U.S. military strikes lingering if a deal is not done.
Confusion loomed large after the U.S. Supreme Court struck down President Donald Trump’s emergency tariffs, leading him to announce a new 10% rate on the rest of the world, only to then lift it to 15% in a move that seemed to surprise some of his own officials.
“The tariff landscape is now more uncertain than before, uncertainty is not good news for any economy or market,” said Rodrigo Catril, a senior FX strategist at NAB.
“Unless common sense prevails, we could be entering a circular process where new tariffs are announced, then potentially overturned, only for new tariffs to be announced, and we do the dance again.”
It was not yet clear when these tariffs would be imposed, what might be excluded and whether every country would be slapped with 15%. Some, including the UK and Australia, had 10% tariff rates under the former rules, while many countries in Asia had higher rates.
With so much up in the air, MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan edged up 0.5% in light trade. Japan’s Nikkei was shut for a holiday but futures traded at 56,970 against a cash close of 56,825. South Korea extended its bull run with another 2.0% rise, having already jumped 5.5% last week to all-time highs.
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S&P 500 futures fell 0.3% and Nasdaq futures 0.4% ahead of earnings from Nvidia, which is sure to cause waves given the tech behemoth makes up almost 8% of the S&P 500 index.
The world’s most valuable company is expected to post a 71% rise in earnings per share to $7.76, though estimates range from as low as $6.28 to as high as $9.68. Options imply its shares could shift by at least 6% in either direction on the announcement.
The Treasury market had been sideswiped by the tariff news as it raised the risk the U.S. government would have to repay around $170 billion in revenue. Such an outcome would, on paper, widen the fiscal deficit by half a percentage point to around 6.6% of GDP.
The holiday in Japan meant cash Treasuries were not trading, but 10-year note futures were down 2 ticks.
The market had also been tugged two ways by mixed data with economic growth badly missing forecasts in the December quarter, but core inflation surprising on the high side.
That saw the probability of a June rate cut from the Federal Reserve come in to around 52%, from over 60% a week ago, and left the dollar firmer on the week.
Early Monday, the dollar was under pressure amid speculation the chaos over U.S. trade policy could reinforce the “sell America” theme evident in markets in recent months.
The dollar eased 0.4% on the Japanese yen to 154.36, while the euro added 0.4% to $1.1826. The dollar also dipped 0.5% on the Swiss franc to 0.7718.
In commodity markets, gold gained a safe-haven bid and firmed 0.8% to $5,143 an ounce. Silver gained 2% to $86.24 per ounce, after climbing almost 8% on Friday. [GOL/]
Oil prices were choppy, having gained last week as Trump said the U.S. military could strike specific targets in Iran if a nuclear deal was not agreed on. [O/R]
Brent edged down 0.6% to $71.29 a barrel, while U.S. crude lost 0.8% to $65.95 per barrel.
