In Parliament, opposition MPs condemned the breach as a “fundamental failure. Photo credit: samoila ionut/Shutterstock
On November 26, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) mistakenly published its November Economic and Fiscal Outlook (EFO) more than 40 minutes before the official presentation of the budget by Chancellor Rachel Reeves in Parliament. This unprecedented error exposed the government’s key tax, spending and economic forecasts ahead of public release, prompting immediate political and market concern.
Within hours, the OBR removed the document and apologised. Its chair, Richard Hughes, described the incident as a “technical but serious error” and the “worst failure in the watchdog’s 15-year history,” triggering an internal investigation.
How the Leak Happened
Technical Vulnerabilities, Not Sabotage
The inquiry concluded the leak did not stem from hacking or external interference. Instead, it was caused by pre-existing failures in the OBR’s document-publishing procedures, specifically misconfigured website settings that allowed access to the confidential report via a predictable URL. Dozens of users accessed the file before the budget speech.
Officials acknowledged the vulnerability had existed for some time, highlighting systemic weaknesses in how sensitive fiscal documents were handled.
Political and Market Fallout
Financial Turbulence and Parliamentary Fury
The leak triggered immediate market reactions: UK government bonds experienced volatility, and the pound fluctuated as traders processed the early announcement of tax and spending plans.
In Parliament, opposition MPs condemned the breach as a “fundamental failure,” accusing the government of misleading the public about fiscal projections. The timing undercut the impact of Reeves’s speech and raised questions about the confidentiality and reliability of the UK’s fiscal forecasting process.
Accountability and Institutional Shake-up
Chair Resigns, Review Under Way
Under pressure, Richard Hughes resigned on December 1, taking full responsibility for the error. The OBR’s independent board described the incident as “the worst failure in its 15-year history.”
The watchdog has committed to overhauling its publication system, replacing the existing platform with a more secure government-managed infrastructure. A forensic audit of prior budget releases has also been promised to ensure no further unreported leaks occurred.
Key Points
- On November 26, the OBR accidentally released its Economic and Fiscal Outlook before the Chancellor presented the budget.
- The leak resulted from misconfigured website publishing procedures rather than hacking.
- The error triggered market reactions, including bond volatility and fluctuations in sterling.
- Opposition MPs criticised the government for mismanagement of fiscal data.
- Richard Hughes resigned on December 1, accepting full responsibility.
- The OBR will implement a secure publishing system and conduct a forensic audit.
- The resignation is a symbolic move to restore confidence in UK fiscal oversight.
- A wider review of budget processes is underway.
Looking Ahead
Restoring Trust in UK Fiscal Oversight
The resignation of the OBR chair marks a significant step toward accountability, but rebuilding trust will take time. Future forecasts will be closely scrutinised, and reforms to the publication process aim to prevent technical oversights.
As Britain faces economic uncertainty, with rising debt, planned tax changes, and pressure on public services, the credibility of the institution tasked with independently forecasting fiscal accuracy has never been more critical. Ensuring that sensitive budget information is securely handled will be essential to maintaining public and parliamentary confidence.
