Bitcoin’s price may decline by almost 50% if its current downward trend over the past month continues, says a traditional finance analyst.
However, onchain analytics firm Glassnode suggested that Bitcoin’s (BTC) current downtrend may not be as severe as some market participants believe.
Bloomberg analyst Mike McGlone said in an X post on Thursday that Bitcoin hitting $100,000 could be “a Speed Bump Toward $56,000.”
“My look at the chart shows how normal it’s been for the first-born crypto to revert to its 48-month moving average, now around $56,000, after similarly extended rallies as in 2025,” McGlone added.
Indicators suggest Bitcoin has bottomed out
However, several key data metrics suggest that Bitcoin’s drop to $98,000 on Nov. 4 could have marked the local bottom. It was the first time in over four months that Bitcoin fell below the psychologically important $100,000 level.
Bitcoin has since slightly recovered, trading at $101,380 at the time of publication, according to CoinMarketCap.
Analysts at XWIN Research Japan said on Thursday that Bitcoin’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio, an indicator that measures whether the asset is overvalued, has dropped to levels that have historically marked local bottoms.
In its market report on Wednesday, Glassnode said that one key Bitcoin metric indicates the recent downturn may simply be a normal correction within the ongoing cycle.
“It’s useful to assess the Relative Unrealized Loss, which measures the total unrealized losses in USD relative to market capitalization,” Glassnode said.
Bitcoin market resembles past mid-cycle corrections
“Unlike the 2022–2023 bear market, where losses reached extreme levels, the current reading of 3.1% suggests only moderate stress, comparable to mid-cycle corrections in Q3–Q4 2024 and Q2 2025, all of which remained below the 5% threshold,” Glassnode said.
“As long as unrealized losses stay within this range, the market can be classified as a mild bear phase characterized by orderly revaluation rather than panic.”
It comes just days after Vineet Budki, CEO of venture firm Sigma Capital, told Cointelegraph that BTC may see a retracement of 65% to 70% in the next two years.
Related: JPMorgan says BTC looks cheap next to gold, points to $170K fair value
While several analysts have been debating Bitcoin’s short-term trajectory, others are revising their long-term forecasts.
On Thursday, ARK Invest’s Cathie Wood cut her long-term Bitcoin price projection by $300,000, warning that stablecoins are eroding Bitcoin’s role as a store of value in emerging markets.
Wood previously forecast a top BTC price of $1.5 million by 2030.
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