Bitcoin has been moving within a narrow consolidation range over the past 48 hours after briefly testing highs above $115,000. Despite holding its ground above $113,000, bears could argue that momentum has started to wane, with the price showing signs of exhaustion.
This cautious phase has led some market watchers to question whether Bitcoin’s rally has already peaked or if another leg higher is around the corner. One analyst known as Sonny on the social media platform X believes that the coming week will be decisive in determining whether the Bitcoin price has topped this cycle.
An Ultimatum To Bitcoin’s Bull Cycle
In a post on X, Sonny described his outlook on Bitcoin as binary. He stated that Bitcoin must go completely vertical after the weekly cycle low next week; otherwise, the top is 100% in. Basically, this means that the next few trading sessions will confirm whether BTC still has room to run or whether the top is already in with its October 6 all-time high above $126,000.
Bitcoin needs to make an upside move next week in order to invalidate the possibility of the top being already in. The pundit’s projection looks at the possibility of the extended fifth wave scenario, the last bullish Elliott Wave impulse of a final parabolic surge, playing out in November.
He noted that if Bitcoin fails to make this move in November, then that means it has already entered its distribution phase, and the bull cycle that began in late 2023 has already been completed. The chart accompanying his post supports this view, showing BTC in a corrective phase labeled as an ABC structure within the broader Elliott Wave count.
The chart also shows a completed third wave at around $73,000 earlier in 2024 and a fourth wave correction that lasted through late 2024. The ongoing price action, according to his labeling, represents the continuation of the fifth wave that started after the fourth wave ended. BTC has already made new all-time highs during this move.
Changing Outlook And Rotation Into Altcoins
However, the structure also leaves room for a more bearish interpretation, where the current bounce is only a wave II correction within a larger downward move. This means Bitcoin must break decisively above $120,000 next week to confirm the fifth wave continuation. Failure to do so would mean that BTC has already reached its top for this cycle.
After a final local bottom, Sonny expects a rotation to Ethereum and altcoins to create the much-anticipated altseason. This perspective means that if Bitcoin fails to fulfill the expected parabolic extension, capital will shift away from BTC dominance and flow into the altcoin market.
At the time of writing, BTC is trading at $113,120, having retraced a bit from its intraday high of $116,041. The coming week could determine whether this recovery sets off a vertical move or confirms that Bitcoin’s top is already in.
Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
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