Key takeaways:
-
Bitcoin rallied 14% in a week, eyeing $124,000 amid a US government shutdown.
-
Onchain data showed a $1.6 billion surge in buying and a Coinbase premium gap of $92, signaling US-led demand.
-
Analysts see resistance near $130,000, with price discovery possible next week.
Bitcoin (BTC) has staged a fierce rally over the past week, climbing 14% to trade a few dollars away from $124,000 from a range low near $108,600 last Friday. This surge could nudge Bitcoin into fresh price-discovery territory above $125,500, as the total crypto market cap pushed above $4.21 trillion, a mark that underscored the broad strength of this rally.
One surprising catalyst behind this price rise is the US government shutdown and how markets appear to be ignoring it. As federal agencies furlough staff and economic data releases face delays, investor uncertainty is rising.
In these conditions, Bitcoin has directly benefited, rising 8% since the shutdown, with traders positioning around the lack of clear policy direction. The government halt also complicated the Federal Reserve’s decisions since inflation and jobs data could be postponed, heightening speculative flows into crypto.
In comments to Cointelegraph, Bitfinex analysts said,
”Bitcoin’s movement toward a new all-time high appears genuinely organic. We suspect that Trump’s announcement of potentially considering a stimulus cheque for every citizen, funded by tariffs, could also contribute to a further rise in Bitcoin’s price. This could mirror what we witnessed following the Covid stimulus cheques. Meanwhile, steady ETF inflows provide a clear tailwind.”
Referencing macroeconomic conditions in the US, the analysts explained that “macro conditions remain supportive, with inflation easing and the Federal Reserve adopting a more dovish stance, which boosts appetite for risk assets. […] If inflows remain consistent and macro data does not deliver any upside surprises, the path toward more new all-time highs in Q4 appears well supported.”
Onchain BTC buying pressure mounts
Onchain data confirmed the surge is driven by strong demand. Analyst Maartunn noted a taker buy volume spike of over $1.6 billion in one hour across all exchanges.
Meanwhile, the Coinbase Premium Gap, which measures price differences between Coinbase and Binance, rose to $91.86. Analyst Burak Kesmeci explained that US investors are paying nearly $92 more per Bitcoin on Coinbase, signaling strong US-led demand.
However, this is the highest premium since mid-August, a level where bullish momentum has historically cooled in 2025.
Related: Bitcoin due for squeeze as record $88B open interest sparks ‘flush’ worries
Price discovery outlook for next week
With Bitcoin pressing near record highs, analysts expected price discovery in the coming week. Crypto trader Jelle noted,
“$120,000 being turned into support today. Hold it over the weekend, and I expect price discovery to resume as early as next week.”
Trader Rekt Capital described this stage as “Phase 3 Price Discovery” of the current cycle, the breakout phase, where new highs get established.
Analyst Skew pointed out that while demand is robust, heavy sell orders cluster around $130,000, making that the next key resistance. The analyst also highlighted the strong US inflows via Coinbase and large “risk-on” positioning on Binance, stressing that the upcoming daily closes will be critical in confirming whether BTC can sustain momentum.
Related: Stablecoins break $300B market cap, post 47% growth year-to-date
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
