At its military parade on Wednesday, China showcased hypersonic missiles to sink ships, drones that serve as wingmen and nuclear-capable ballistic missiles that can strike the continental United States.
The jets that screamed across the sky and the columns of missiles and armored vehicles that rolled past Tiananmen Square in Beijing provided a rare look at China’s new weapons.
All military hardware paraded
Note: Only equipment paraded on the ground is shown, excluding three support and logistics formations.
The massive military parade, presided over by China’s leader Xi Jinping, was a warning to his country’s prospective foes.
The anti-ship missiles seemed tailor-made to menace American forces in the Asia-Pacific region. Long-range rocket launchers magnified Beijing’s threat to Taiwan, the self-governed island democracy. The armored vehicles that can be dropped from planes appeared to extend China’s ability to defend its growing global interests.
If one theme stood out, analysts said, it was that the People’s Liberation Army is betting on unmanned systems to gain a potential edge in battle.
New Missile Threats to U.S. Navy Ships
One of the parade’s strongest warnings to U.S. forces was in four new models of anti-ship missiles, three of which were hypersonic, according to state media, meaning they travel at least five times the speed of sound and can maneuver to evade defenses.
“Beijing’s decision to showcase these weapons sends a not-so-subtle message to Taiwan and Washington that China has the ability to threaten American warships,” said Timothy R. Heath, a senior researcher at the global policy institute RAND who studies the Chinese military.
For China, having more advanced hypersonic missiles bearing down at different speeds and angles on enemy warships may make it harder for an enemy navy to avoid or counter attacks.
The most notable of the anti-ship missiles might be the YJ-19, a cruise missile that appears to use a “scramjet,” which burns its fuel in an airflow moving at supersonic speed, a design that helps give the missile its high speed.
Hypersonic anti-ship missile
The missile’s features suggest that it could have both a highly unpredictable flight path and the ability to fly its last leg at a lower altitude than ballistic missiles, albeit at a slower speed, said Eric Heginbotham, a principal research scientist in the security studies program of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
It was unclear whether the YJ-19 and other new missiles were already in service. The potential impact on U.S. Navy ships’ vulnerability will depend on how many of the missiles China can make and deploy, Mr. Heginbotham said.
“Not all of what they will show will be operational,” he said of the parade. “That’s been true in the past, and it remains true now.”
New Weapons for Ground Troops
The parade showcased new armored ground vehicles that could be dropped from transport planes. The vehicles had what appeared to be periscope-like viewers to allow troops to observe their surroundings from inside the vehicles.
New airborne combat vehicles
The new vehicles showed that China was investing in possible rapid deployment to Taiwan or even far beyond China, said Joshua Arostegui, the research director of the China Landpower Studies Center at the U.S. Army War College.
“Adding such advanced armor to the airborne corps will give these light infantry forces much more firepower and protection when they are dropped behind enemy lines or rapidly responding to dangerous situations abroad,” he said.
Also featured were remote-controlled armored buggies that can clear mines and pick up wounded soldiers. “The biggest issue with these systems is going to be cost and repair,” Mr. Arostegui noted.
A Glimpse of Future Sea and Air Combat
Two sleek submersible drones made their debut, signaling China’s ambitions to compete with the United States beneath the waves using “extra-large uncrewed undersea vehicles.”
One was a 60-foot, torpedo-shaped vessel with a smooth hull, while the other had small masts that could be used for communications.
Little is publicly known about China’s new undersea vehicles, or how they stack up against similar vehicles being developed by the United States, Russia and other naval powers. What stands out is the sheer number of undersea vehicles that China is developing, said Jennifer Parker, a former anti-submarine warfare officer in the Australian Navy.
“The range of types indicates they may be more advanced in this endeavor than other countries,” said Ms. Parker, now an expert at the National Security College of Australian National University.
China may also be looking to arm some of its models, Ms. Parker suggested, pointing to the features of the AJX002 model shown at the parade. “Given the lack of masts and its size, it looks like it’s weaponized,” she said. “Could be some sort of self-propelled mine or torpedo-like capability.”
Jet fighters, bombers and other air force planes also roared through the sky, while on the ground, trucks carried large drones that looked like small fighter jets. It was a sign of China’s plans to pair manned and unmanned aircraft in future wars.
China and other powers are betting that artificial intelligence will make it possible for piloted jets to fly alongside such so-called “loyal wingmen” drones, which may help surveil and attack enemy aircraft and block missiles from hitting the manned fighters.
The number of large drones and unmanned planes in the parade showed that China is heavily committed to this new field, said Andreas Rupprecht, an expert on Chinese military aviation who is based in Germany. “In many technological areas, it is in the fast lane — sometimes on par with, or even ahead of, leading powers,” he said.
None of the unmanned planes were shown in flight, though. They may still be a work in progress.
Nuclear Expansion
Among the most closely watched weapons were China’s nuclear forces. That included the missiles labeled “DF-31BJ” that rumbled past Tiananmen Square, hinting at the country’s plans to expand its intercontinental force, which could strike the United States.
The label indicated that the missile may be a version of China’s road-mobile DF-31 intercontinental nuclear missile, adapted for silo launch, said Ankit Panda, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and author of “The New Nuclear Age.”
China displayed nuclear-capable missiles for submarines and aircraft at the parade, but it does not disclose how many nuclear weapons it has. The Federation of American Scientists estimates that China has about 600 warheads. China has also upgraded the missiles, submarines and bombers that can carry the warheads.
In recent years, China built three missile silo fields in its northern deserts, and the appearance of the DF-31BJ missile at the parade seemed to bolster U.S. military assessments that the missile would be installed in at least some of the 320 or so silos, Mr. Panda said.
About 10 of the silos in each field may have already been loaded with missiles, the Federation of American Scientists said in a recent report. But the Chinese government has said little in public about the silo fields.
“For now, parading the DF-31BJ is likely the closest we’ll come to China acknowledging new silos,” Mr. Panda said.
