- Bitcoin has dropped 7.5% since its recent all-time high of ~$123,250, but analysts see this as a potential “perfect bottom.”
- BTC has successfully retested its 50-day EMA, a support level that preceded a 25% rebound in June.
- A classic inverted head-and-shoulders (IH&S) technical pattern now targets a price of $148,250.
Bitcoin has pulled back by 7.50% in the three weeks since it established a new record high of around $123,250.
However, far from signaling the end of the bull run, some analysts believe this recent dip may be the final “shakeout” before a significant breakout, with technical patterns now pointing towards a potential rally to nearly $150,000.
On Sunday, Bitcoin successfully reclaimed its 50-day exponential moving average (50-day EMA) as a key support level, after briefly dipping below it a day earlier.
This particular moving average has historically served as a reliable launchpad for initiating fresh rallies in Bitcoin’s price.
A similar scenario played out in June, for instance, when a brief drop below this very same wave of support preceded a sharp 25% rebound in the cryptocurrency’s value.
Now, it appears that Bitcoin may be repeating this same technical setup. Analyst “BitBull” suggests that the cryptocurrency could be poised for a June-like rally in the coming days.
He argues that even if the price were to drop further into the 110,000-112,000 range, it would effectively establish a “perfect bottom” for Bitcoin, potentially setting the stage for the next significant move higher.
A classic breakout pattern targets $148,000
The importance of the 50-day EMA as a support level is further reinforced by its alignment with the “neckline” of Bitcoin’s prevailing inverted head-and-shoulders (IH&S) pattern.
This classic technical analysis pattern is often seen as a strong indicator of a bullish reversal.
After initially breaking above this neckline, Bitcoin’s price has now pulled back to retest it—a typical post-breakout move. The fact that the price has bounced off this retested level reinforces the validity of the bullish reversal setup.
This successful neckline retest now signals that Bitcoin may be entering the continuation phase of its breakout. According to the technicals of the IH&S pattern, the price is now targeting a move toward the $148,250 level.
This is remarkably close to the widely anticipated $150,000 upside target that many analysts have forecasted for Bitcoin in 2025, with many expecting it to happen around October.
Whale watching: on-chain data signals a ‘cyclical cooling phase’
On-chain data provides further evidence that Bitcoin’s ongoing price dip may be a precursor to another major breakout.
According to data from CryptoQuant, the Bitcoin market has experienced three major waves of profit-taking by large “whale” investors during the 2023–2025 bull market.
The first of these waves followed the landmark launch of U.S. spot ETFs in March 2024. The second occurred after Bitcoin broke the $100,000 mark following the Trump election in late 2024.
The third, and most recent, wave took place in July 2025, after a breakout over $120,000 triggered a massive 80,000 BTC sell-off by a long-time “old whale” investor.
In a report published on Friday, CryptoQuant analysts noted that each of these waves of profit-taking was followed by a period of price consolidation or a moderate correction, typically lasting between two to four months.
“These cooling phases have historically set the stage for renewed accumulation and a subsequent breakout to new all-time highs,” they wrote.
The analysts concluded, “The data provides compelling evidence that the market is undergoing another cyclical cooling phase, consistent with prior waves that preceded periods of consolidation and later breakouts to higher prices.”
This suggests that the current dip is not an end to the bull market, but rather a healthy and necessary part of its cycle.
