- Pi Coin nears all-time low ahead of $10M token unlock.
- Bear flag pattern suggests a potential drop to $0.351.
- Weak sentiment grows as Pi Network decouples from Bitcoin rally.
The price of Pi Coin, the native token of Pi Network, is teetering dangerously close to its all-time low, just hours before a major $10 million token unlock set to flood the market with over 19 million additional coins.
Despite a brief uptick in the broader crypto market, Pi Coin remains under intense pressure, trading around $0.498 and down over 10% in the past week.
Upcoming 304.7 million Pi tokens unlock
Notably, Pi Coin traders are bracing for the beginning of a 30-day unlock schedule that will release 304.7 million Pi Network tokens into circulation, significantly increasing available supply.
The first and largest daily token release, worth nearly $10 million, is set to go live on July 4, raising fears of an imminent selloff as early holders and speculators potentially offload tokens.
While some whales have been moving their Pi Coins off exchanges into self-custody wallets, a recent 6 million net inflow to centralised platforms suggests many are preparing to sell into the unlock.
Bearish patterns point to steeper losses
Technically, the outlook for Pi Coin has continued to deteriorate, as a bearish flag pattern has emerged on the charts.
The flagpole, which began forming after a steep drop from $0.66 to $0.47 in late June, is now supporting a fragile relief rally inside an ascending channel that analysts fear could soon break down.
If the current structure fails to hold and Pi Coin drops below the lower boundary of the flag, the price could fall another 28% to around $0.351.
This level would place the token dangerously close to its historical low of $0.401, which was recorded just three months ago in April.
Adding to the concern, momentum indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) are showing signs of weakness.
Both are approaching critical thresholds, and if they fail to hold above their mean levels, the selling pressure may intensify sharply.
Pi Coin’s decoupling from Bitcoin weakens investor faith
While Bitcoin (BTC) continues its push toward all-time highs, Pi Coin has sharply diverged from its trajectory, with its correlation dropping to just 0.07.
This disconnect indicates that Pi is no longer benefiting from bullish sentiment in the broader crypto market, making it more vulnerable to localised negative pressure.
Historically, altcoins tend to follow Bitcoin’s lead during rallies, but Pi’s failure to keep up has eroded investor confidence.
As a result, sentiment around the token has declined, and market participants now fear Pi may not recover even if the overall crypto landscape remains bullish.
At the same time, the CMF has begun dipping toward the zero line, signalling that outflows are beginning to outpace inflows across Pi’s trading pairs.
This suggests a loss of conviction among traders, particularly as newly unlocked tokens threaten to further dilute Pi’s market position.
Key Pi Network price support levels under siege
The price of the native token of Pi Network is currently balancing just above a critical support level at $0.493.
If this support is lost, traders expect a swift move toward the $0.45 mark, with further downside likely if the market fails to absorb the incoming supply.
Despite the downward momentum, a reversal is not entirely out of the question.
If bulls manage to push the price above $0.518 and convert it into support, Pi Coin may regain momentum and avoid the worst-case scenario of testing new lows.
However, given the scale of the unlock and the prevailing negative sentiment, such a recovery would require a strong surge in demand—something the market has yet to show.
Even with growing speculative interest reflected by a $23 million open interest figure, the risk of a long squeeze grows larger with every price dip.
As things stand, Pi Network faces a precarious short-term future.
With its market cap slipping, trading volume weakening, and technical indicators flashing red, the $10 million unlock may well be the catalyst that drives the next major leg down.
