European equities have been enjoying a strong 2025 so far, with major indices capping the first half of the year in positive territory and outperforming their US counterparts. But as investors weigh whether it’s time to lock in gains or ride the momentum, history suggests July might be the month to stay invested.
In fact, July stands out as the most bullish month of the year for European shares.
Backed by two decades of data, the month not only delivers higher-than-average returns but also does so with remarkable consistency.
July: The best-performing month for European indices
Take the EURO STOXX 50, the region’s blue-chip benchmark. Over the past 20 years, it has posted an average July return of 1.94%, finishing the month in positive territory 70% of the time. That’s the strongest performance of any month in the year.
July 2009 was particularly stellar, with the index rallying 9.8%, followed by robust gains of 7.3% in 2022, 6.56% in 2010, and 6.36% in 2013.
Of course, not every July has been smooth sailing. The worst declines came in 2011, when the index dropped 6.3%, and in 2007, with a 3.9% loss. Still, the broader pattern points to July as a month that favours the bulls.
The STOXX Europe 600, which offers a wider snapshot of the region’s equity market, echoes this trend.
The index has averaged a 2.04% return in July, again with a 70% win ratio, marking it as the most reliable month of the calendar year.
Zooming in on national indices, the pattern holds. France’s CAC 40 has seen average July gains of 1.8% with a 65% win rate, making it its best month of the year.
Germany’s DAX comes close, with July returns averaging 1.91%. While not the strongest — November and April post higher gains —, July remains among the top-performing months.
Italy’s FTSE MIB stands out, rising 1.78% on average in July with a 70% success rate — higher than any other month for the Milan index.
Stocks with standout July track records
Seasonal strength doesn’t stop at the index level. According to data from Seasonax, a number of European companies consistently deliver robust July returns over the past two decades.
Among the top performers:
- Credit Agricole: A July star, averaging a 4.85% gain with a 73% win rate — the best month of the year for the French lender.
- BNP Paribas: Another banking giant shining in summer, with average returns of 3.79% and a 70% win rate.
- Societe Generale: Rounding out the trio of French banks, it posts 3.68% on average in July with the same 70% success ratio.
Luxury also comes into play:
- LVMH and Hermès average July gains of 3.23% and 3.19% respectively, each with strong win rates (70% and 65%).
- Kering sees similar strength with 3.64%, though with a lower 55% win rate.
Elsewhere in industrials and tech:
- Airbus: The French industrial powerhouse showed average gains of 3.9% and a remarkable 80% win rate in July. It’s the second-best month after January, but far more consistent.
- SAP SE: The German software firm sees July as its best month too, averaging 2.98% with a 65% win rate.
- Continental AG and Carl Zeiss Meditec also post average July returns above 4%, with strong seasonal signals.
Bottom line: A seasonal tilt worth noting
While past performance never guarantees future outcomes, July’s track record for European equities stands out as a recurring bright spot.
From banks to luxury and industrial names, many sectors have historically benefited from a summer tailwind.
For investors weighing their next move, seasonality isn’t everything — but it might just be a reason to keep an eye on Europe this July.
The information in this article is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research to ensure any investment decisions are appropriate for your individual circumstances. Please note that we are a journalistic website, dedicated to offering expert insights, tips, and guidance. Any action you take based on the content of this page is done entirely at your own risk.
