A crypto analyst has revealed a significant disconnect between the Bitcoin price peak and the continued expansion of the Global M2 money supply. In his analysis, he shares a surprising comparison that raises fresh questions about the true drivers of the crypto bull market and how liquidity trends impact price cycles.
Bitcoin Price Moves Ahead Of Global M2
A recent analysis by Rekt Capital, a crypto expert on X (formerly Twitter), draws attention to a critical timing mismatch between the Bitcoin price movements and global liquidity levels, measured by the Global M2 money supply. According to the data, Bitcoin reached an all-time high in November 2021, marking the peak of the bull market. However, Global M2 continued to rise for another five months, finally topping out in April 2022.
This five-month divergence has prompted a reevaluation of Bitcoin’s sensitivity to macro indicators and its ability to act as a leading macroeconomic signal. Rekt Capital’s analysis implies that while liquidity conditions heavily influence Bitcoin, it does not necessarily move in lockstep with them. Instead, it may anticipate shifts in monetary policy and investor sentiment before they fully play out in traditional finance indicators like the money supply.
While Bitcoin had already begun its decline following its peak in November 2021, the expansion of the global money supply persisted, indicating that central banks and financial systems were still operating under loose monetary conditions well into 2022. Notably, Rekt Capital’s analysis does not imply a direct cause-and-effect relationship but highlights a clear time lag between Bitcoin’s price behavior and global liquidity trends. This places BTC in a unique position in the financial landscape, as both a liquidity-sensitive asset and a potential early warning signal to broader market changes.
BTC And Global M2 Set Stage For September Surge
Crypto Con, a crypto analyst on X, has also shared insights into the relationship between Bitcoin’s price and changes in the Global M2 money supply, indicating the potential for a major upside move in the leading cryptocurrency. The chart, published on June 25, presents a side-by-side comparison of Bitcoin’s historical performance with a 10-week forward-shifted Global M2 metric.
The chart’s data reveals a recurring pattern where the Global M2 expanded, and Bitcoin followed with a rally approximately ten weeks later. Conversely, contractions in M2 preceded Bitcoin’s price declines by the same time frame. This trend was observed during several key turning points in the market cycle.
In April 2023, a significant decline in M2 was followed by a Bitcoin price downturn. A reversal and increase in M2 around March 2024 corresponded with the start of a sustained Bitcoin rally. Similarly, the December 2024 peak in M2 anticipated a Bitcoin correction several weeks later.
Based on this trend, current conditions remain favorable. The forward-shifted Global M2 continues to show an upward trajectory, implying that Bitcoin may experience more upside movement through early September 2025.
Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
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