Copy of Kosmos 482, a half-tonne, Cold War satellite.
Credit: Wikimedia CC
A Cold War-era Soviet spacecraft, Kosmos 482, is about to make an unpredictable, out-of-control plunge to Earth this weekend after 53 years in orbit.
Launched in 1972 for a Venus mission, the spacecraft failed to break free from Earth’s gravity and has been circling with no ground control ever since. The descent capsule, roughly the size of a washing machine and weighing nearly half a tonne, is expected to re-enter the atmosphere around 4am Saturday, possibly over the western hemisphere, with southern England among its potential paths.
Designed to endure Venus’ extreme 477°C temperatures and bone-crushing pressure, unlike other, newer satellites, the robust capsule is likely to survive re-entry intact. However, because of its age, its parachute, intended for a Venus landing, will not deploy, raising concerns about an uncontrolled impact in some place that no one can precisely predict.
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Scientists, including Dr Marcin Pilinski of the University of Colorado Boulder, estimate a low risk to populated areas, as most of Earth’s surface is ocean or sparsely inhabited. A more precise landing site prediction is expected 24 to 48 hours before impact.
Kosmos 482’s long orbit has provided valuable data for modelling atmospheric drag and solar activity, helping the US Space Force’s collision avoidance systems. Meanwhile, experts in the field of orbital technology, such as Charles Constant of University College London warn that growing numbers of satellites are raising the risk of cascading collisions, known as Kessler events, which could disrupt orbiting infrastructure such as communications satellites.
As the world awaits bated breath, Kosmos 482’s final plunge to some place on Earth, probably near or over Europe, its legacy shows the challenges we face at managing space debris.
