The Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) has made an unexpected climb into a historically strong resistance zone, now hovering near the 64.7% mark in the High Time Frame (HTF). This sharp move has sparked considerable interest among analysts and traders, with key technical indicators and chart formations suggesting a potential turning point that could usher in the long-awaited 2025 altcoin season.
Bitcoin Dominance Faces HTF Resistance
The Bitcoin Dominance has been steadily climbing for almost 3 years, underscoring the flagship cryptocurrency’s enduring influence over the broader market. Notably, crypto analyst Gert van Lagen has unveiled an unexpected uptick in BTC.D.
The analyst shared a technical chart analysis of Bitcoin Dominance, highlighting a confluence of bearish signals that mirror the 2021 market cycle — a period that led to a dramatic shift in capital from BTC to alternative cryptocurrencies.
The analyst has pointed out that Bitcoin Dominance has now reached a key HTF resistance zone of around 64%-76 %. The current chart also shows a rising wedge pattern, a typical indicator of market exhaustion before a potential trend reversal. This crucial wedge pattern has formed within the same HTF resistance zone where BTC.D topped out in past cycles, including the 2021 peak.
Adding to the bearish outlook, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is flashing a regular bearish divergence. While Bitcoin Dominance is pushing higher, RSI is failing to do the same, indicating weakening momentum. A similar setup occurred in 2021, where exaggerated bearish divergence foreshadowed the eventual breakdown of BTC.D and paved the way for an altseason.
If history is any guide, the market could be approaching another inflection point. As in the last cycle, Lagen believes that the actual top in Bitcoin Dominance might not be confirmed until the uptrend structure breaks — a move that would likely shift attention to altcoins.
Expanding on the Bitcoin Dominance recent rise, other analysts like Ijaz Awan on X disclosed that BTC.D is currently approaching a major resistance zone between 71.38% and 73.06%. The analyst highlights that this area has been a strong turning point in the past, acting as a top back in 2017, 2019 and 2021. With Bitcoin Dominance nearing past peaks, the analyst predicts a potential start of the altcoin season.
Is The Altcoin Season Really Coming?
In his post, Lagen concluded his analysis by stating that the altcoin season is dawning. Other prominent analysts share this view, believing that Bitcoin’s Dominance serves as a key indicator of an impending altcoin season.
Notably, Karman Asghar, a crypto trader and analyst, confirmed in an X post that a new altcoin season is brewing in 2025 as the Bitcoin Dominance chart flashes familiar warning signs. The analyst shared two parallel charts, comparing similar Bitcoin Dominance in 2021 and 2025. Both charts displayed BTC.D forming a double top, with a clear bearish RSI divergence.
While the bearish RSI divergence isn’t a guaranteed trigger, its recurrence combined with historical market behaviour gives credibility to the idea that the market may be on the brink of another major altcoin season.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview.com
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