The next Japan ‘megaquake’ is predicted to be worse than the Great East Japan Earthquake of 2011
Credit:Shutterstock:mTaira
The Japanese government released a report on March 31 highlighting just how catastrophic the effects of the next ‘megaquake’ will be.
In terms of the specifics, they have stated that the economic cost to the country will be in the region of $1.8 trillion (€1.7 trillion), which is an increase from the projection made in their previous report, presented in 2012.
As for the loss of life, this is a 10 per cent improvement but is a far cry from the goal of reducing fatalities to around 80 per cent. This was the figure that the government submitted in their 2014 basic plan for disaster prevention. To put this in perspective, the current report projects that the number of evacuees would be around 12.3 million. To put it another way, around 10 per cent of Japan’s entire current population.
The reason for this is that Japan lies along the circum-Pacific seismic belt, also more commonly known as the ‘Ring of Fire’. This is located along the outer edges of the Pacific Ocean and shockingly, according to the US Geological Survey, is where more than 80 per cent of the largest earthquakes in the world occur.
Has Japan ever had a 9.0 earthquake?
The last ‘megaquake’ to hit was the Great East Japan Earthquake, which occurred on March 11, 2011. This quake really did live up to its name, hitting an incredible 9.0-magnitude, triggering a tsunami, and causing a nuclear accident that led to the deaths of more than 19,000 people.
In this latest report, the Japanese government are predicting a further ‘megaquake’ of a similar magnitude that could lead to the deaths of up to 298,000 people in The Nankai Trough. This is an ocean trench located off the southern coastline of the Japanese mainland. As with the 2011 ‘megaquake’, they are predicting that Tsunami waves will be responsible for a considerable number of the estimated death toll – around 215,000 in fact.
However, this assumes an immediate evacuation level of 20 per cent. Were this to be increased to a rate of 70 per cent, the number of deaths could be reduced to around 94,000.
Will an earthquake happen again in Japan?
With a Nankai Trough earthquake typically striking Japan every 100 to 150 years, experts have estimated the chances of a further quake in the next 30 years at 70-80 per cent. In a worst-case scenario, according to official estimates, some regions could experience the highest level of Japan’s seismic intensity scale, as well as tsunami waves rising well over 98 feet.
This report comes after the recent earthquake that struck Myanmar. With a magnitude of 7.7, it caused tens of thousands of deaths. In light of this and the stark numbers in the latest report, Japan’s Kyodo News have reported that the Japanese government will now revise their current disaster prevention plan, including expanding the number of priority evacuation regions.
Over to you – Do you think governments do enough to mitigate the effects of natural disasters?
