A crypto analyst says inaccurate narratives still circulate in the cryptocurrency market, mainly based on skewed information rather than onchain data to back it up.
“Beware of misinformation. Despite the data, misleading narratives persist,” CryptoQuant contributor “onchained,” said in a March 22 market report.
“Such claims often lack onchain validation and are driven by sensationalist market sentiment rather than objective analysis,” the analyst said, adding:
“Trust data, not noise, verify sources and cross-check onchain metrics.”
Onchained pointed to the recent movements of Bitcoin (BTC) long-term holders (LTH) — those holding for over 155 days — as an example of false narratives clashing with real data.
The analyst pointed out that while some narratives claim Bitcoin long-term holders are “capitulating,” the data shows they’re remaining consistent. “The data leaves no room for speculation,” Onchained said.
The Inactive Supply Shift Index (ISSI) — which measures the degree to which long-dormant Bitcoin supply is shifting — “shows no meaningful LTH selling pressure, reinforcing a narrative of structural demand outpacing supply,” Onchained said.
Narratives are always being challenged
Crypto analytics platform Glassnode recently made a similar observation based on data, saying, “Long-Term Holder activity remains largely subdued, with a notable decline in their sell-side pressure.”
Crypto market narratives are constantly changing and being challenged.
One long-standing crypto narrative under debate is the relevance of the 4-year cycle theory, which suggests that Bitcoin’s price follows a predictable pattern tied to its halving event every four years.
MN Trading Capital founder Michael van de Poppe said in a March 22 X post, “I assume that we can erase the entire 4-year cycle theory and that we’re in a longer cycle for Altcoins.”
Related: Crypto markets will be pressured by trade wars until April: Analyst
Echoing a similar sentiment, Bitwise Invest chief investment officer Matt Hougan recently said that “the traditional four-year cycle is over in crypto” due to the recent change in the US government’s stance.
“Crypto has moved in four-year cycles since its earliest days. But the change in DC introduces a new wave that will play out over a decade,” Hougan said.
Alongside this, some analysts are even debating whether the entire Bitcoin bull market is over.
CryptoQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju said in a March 17 X post, “Bitcoin bull cycle is over, expecting 6-12 months of bearish or sideways price action.”
Ju said all Bitcoin onchain metrics indicate a bear market. “With fresh liquidity drying up, new whales are selling Bitcoin at lower prices,” Ju said.
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