Bubble Watch: Where things stand with 12 NCAA Tournament hopefuls

With Selection Sunday just around the corner, teams will soon learn their NCAA Tournament fate. Have they built a compelling enough case for an at-large bid? Will they need to bolster their résumé with conference tournament wins? Or do they need an automatic bid to qualify for the Big Dance?

All will be decided soon enough.

Heading into Friday, FOX Sports bracket forecaster Mike DeCourcy had San Diego State, Indiana, North Carolina and Texas as his last four teams to get into the tournament, while Xavier, Ohio State, Boise State and UC Irvine were DeCourcy’s first four teams out. Dayton, Colorado State, George Mason and San Francisco were listed as DeCourcy’s next four teams out of the NCAA Tournament.

Here’s how things stand with those 12 bubble teams as of Friday evening.

Record: 21-9
Conference Tournament result: Lost to Boise State (62-52)

What it means: San Diego State is at the committee’s mercy. The Aztecs and Broncos were each fighting to get off the bubble, and there’s probably one spot between the two teams. The Aztecs have to hope their two regular-season wins over Boise State are more valuable than Thursday’s Mountain West Tournament loss. The Aztecs also have more quality wins than the Broncos, including a 73-70 victory over No. 3 Houston on Nov. 30. If the Aztecs had beaten the Broncos, they probably would have clinched a trip to March Madness, so this result makes the committee’s decision difficult.

Record: 19-13
Conference Tournament result: Lost to No. 23 Oregon (72-59)

What it means: Indiana will be sweating it out on Selection Sunday. It could go either way for the Hoosiers, who could have potentially sewn up a spot in the tourney with a win or two in the conference tournament. Instead, they will have to wait to see how a few other bubble teams fare.

No. 9 Indiana vs. No. 8 Oregon Highlights | Big Ten Tournament

Record: 21-11
Conference Tournament result: Lost to No. 25 Marquette (89-87)

What it means: The Musketeers had ripped off seven wins heading into the Big East Tournament, albeit none of them were Quad 1 victories. A two-point loss to a tournament-caliber team in Marquette shouldn’t hurt the Musketeers much, but a win would have stamped their trip to the Big Dance. Instead, it will be a close call for Sean Miller’s team on Selection Sunday.

Record: 22-12
Conference Tournament results: Beat Notre Dame (76-56) and Wake Forest (68-59); Lost to No. 1 Duke (74-71)

What it means: UNC had a chance to strengthen its NCAA Tournament résumé against a Duke team that was without star Cooper Flagg. The Tar Heels, though, couldn’t get the best of the Blue Devils in their third crack at them this season. While a win on Friday wouldn’t have guaranteed a trip to the Big Dance, it would have sent UNC to the ACC Tournament title with a chance to earn an automatic bid. Instead, the Tar Heels will have to hope their wins over Wake Forest and Notre Dame earlier this week will be enough to earn an at-large bid.

Record: 19-14
Conference Tournament results: Beat Vanderbilt (79-72) and No. 14 Texas A&M (94-89, 2OT); Lost to No. 8 Tennessee (83-72)

What it means: Texas helped its NCAA Tournament case with hard-fought wins over Vanderbilt and Texas A&M in the SEC Tournament. However, the Longhorns stumbled against Tennessee on Friday and now will have to rely on the committee to reward them with an at-large bid. Their deep run in the SEC Tournament might give them the nod over fellow bubble teams in their conference that didn’t fare as well this past week, such as Oklahoma, Georgia and Vanderbilt.

Record: 17-15
Conference Tournament result: Lost to Iowa (77-70)

What it means: The Buckeyes, who lost five of their final seven games, have a win this season over one of their fellow bubble teams (Texas). Is that, along with key victories over Purdue and Kentucky, enough for them to sneak into the tournament? Probably not.

Record: 27-5
Conference Tournament result: Will play Cal Poly on Friday

What it means: The Anteaters have constructed a sturdy case for an at-large bid. Unfortunately for them, their Big West rival, UC San Diego, might have a more convincing one. The Tritons won the regular-season league title and are the one seed in the Big West Tournament. The Anteaters most likely have to win the tournament and earn an automatic bid, which could lead to both teams making the NCAA Tournament.

Record: 22-9
Conference Tournament result: Loss to Saint Joseph’s (73-68)

What it means: Dayton’s hopes of an NCAA Tournament bid presumably came to an end on Friday following a 73-68 loss to Saint Joseph’s in an A-10 quarterfinal matchup. The Flyers finished third in a mid-major conference behind VCU and George Mason.

Record: 23-9
Conference Tournament results: Beat San Diego State (62-52); will play New Mexico on Friday

What it means: The Broncos’ win over the Aztecs heavily boosted their case for a spot in the Big Dance as both teams are on the bubble. Boise State had won five of its last six coming into the Mountain West Tournament. A win over the Mountain West regular-season champions, New Mexico, would help the Broncos, but if they want to ensure a spot in March Madness, they’ll probably have to win the conference tournament.

Record: 23-9
Conference Tournament results: Beat Nevada (67-59); will play Utah State on Friday

What it means: Winners of their final seven regular-season games, the Rams are one of the hottest teams in the nation. They put themselves in a hole earlier this season when they lost consecutive games to UC Riverside and Washington, and haven’t had a ton of opportunities to dig themselves out as they’ve played just six Quad 1 opponents and are 1-5 in those games. Colorado State, like Boise State, might have to win the Mountain West Tournament to lock up a spot in the NCAA Tournament, and if those two teams face one another on Saturday, it would make for an enticing battle.

Record: 24-7
Conference Tournament result: Beat George Washington 80-65 on Friday

What it means: The Patriots’ record might seem impressive, but their résumé is not. Any slip-up in the A-10 Tournament will likely take them out of contention for the NCAA Tournament. They kept their hopes alive with a dominant performance against George Washington and will have to continue to string together victories to earn an auto- bid.

Record: 24-9
Conference Tournament result: Lost to Gonzaga (85-76)

What it means: The Dons fell to Gonzaga in the WCC semifinals last weekend and finished conference play with a 13-5 mark. They own wins over Boise State and Saint Mary’s, but their loss to the Bulldogs in the conference tournament marked their third defeat to them this season.

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