The government of Portuguese Prime Minister Luís Montenegro is expected to lose a vote of confidence on Tuesday, pitching the country into its third general election in barely three years.
A majority of MPs are expected to vote against him, toppling his right-of-centre minority government.
While Portugal’s President, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, is not obliged to dissolve the assembly, he has made clear that he will if the government loses Tuesday’s vote, with fresh elections likely in May.
The confidence motion was tabled by the government itself, after the opposition Socialists announced plans for a parliamentary inquiry into Montenegro’s business dealings.
A company called Spinumviva, set up by Luís Montenegro, continued to receive sizeable sums from clients he had previously secured, even after he was elected Social Democratic Party (PSD) president and leader of the opposition in 2022, and had transferred ownership to his wife and two sons.
The legality of the transfer to his wife was questioned by the opposition, given that the marriage is one in which assets are jointly held; the couple have since made their sons sole owners.
But questions remain about the sources of the company’s income – which until a few days ago included €4,500 (£3,800) a month from hotels and casino group Solverde, whose gambling concession is up for review – as well as the identity of other clients, which the prime minister has declined to reveal, and the services Spinumviva offers.
The prime minister, a trained lawyer, says the firm provides consultancy services relating to data privacy laws, outsourcing work to external experts – given that his wife is a childminder, one son a student and the other a new graduate.
The Bar Association is now looking into whether the company is illicitly offering services that only lawyers may offer.
In recent days, Montenegro’s cabinet has approved a battery of spending and other measures, in what is being seen as a bid to show that it is working hard for the country.
The situation might seem to offer ideal conditions for far-right Chega, the third-largest party in parliament, to renew its attacks on corruption in politics.
Chega also benefited from the resignation of Montenegro’s Socialist predecessor, António Costa, who is now president of the European Council. His name had come up in a criminal investigation into government contracts, although he has never been made a suspect.
But in recent weeks, Chega has been hit by scandals of its own, with three of its MPs accused of crimes, including one charged with stealing suitcases at Lisbon airport.
Until recently, Luís Montenegro’s coalition with the conservative People’s Party was still ahead of the Socialists in the opinion polls, having narrowly won the 2024 general election a year ago.
However, they are now trailing the Socialists, led by Pedro Nuno Santos, who served as a minister under António Costa.
None of the major parties appear keen on a snap election – not least because they fear voters will not be enthusiastic at having to choose a new government when the current one has been in office for less than a year – and the timing is poor in geopolitical terms.
However, Portugal appears set on an unswerving path for May elections.
Not only has the prime minister chosen to appeal to voters rather than face an inquiry, a stance described as “cowardly” by the leader of the opposition.
But Pedro Nuno Santos has long pledged not to vote in favour of any government confidence motion.
