At the start of February, Arsenal thumped Manchester City 5-1 in a real statement of intent for the run-in. March, however, begins on a very different footing.
Since that big win over Pep Guardiola’s side, the Gunners have been knocked out of the Carabao Cup, lost their only available striker to a season-ending injury and now the Premier League seems out of reach due to Liverpool’s 13-point buffer.
It leaves the Champions League last 16 tie with PSV Eindhoven as their last hope to salvage this season. But Mikel Arteta’s team go into the European knockout stages in a sour mood.
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The recent loss to West Ham, then the stalemate at Nottingham Forest, meant the Gunners have failed to score in back-to-back Premier League games for the first time in nearly two years.
The two displays represented the Gunners’ second and third-worst performances of the season for shots on target percentages. “[Arsenal] have become quite rigid, they’ve become quite turgid at times to watch,” said Gary Neville recently.
All of Arsenal’s seven defeats have come during the 11 matches when less than 28 per cent of their shots are on target. They are unbeaten in all competitions when they go above that number.
The losses were the separate eliminations from both domestic cup competitions in January and all four of their Premier League and Champions League losses so far this term.
With Arsenal’s attack slipping towards its worst standards of the season, Arteta has a problem to fix. But the issue is there is little firepower available to rectify it, following the loss of first-choice front three Bukayo Saka, Kai Havertz and Gabriel Martinelli to injury – plus Gabriel Jesus.
Saka’s absence is particularly significant given his ability to create big chances for the Gunners. The England winger’s importance is no better summarised by the fact he has only just been overtaken in the list as Europe’s top high-quality chance creator – despite not playing since December 21.
But Arsenal’s injuries up front have also led to holes needing to be filled from elsewhere. Their current muddle was encapsulated by the final few minutes at Nottingham Forest.
Midfielder Merino played 90 minutes up front, left-back Oleksandr Zinchenko came on in midfield with another left-sided defender in Kieran Tierney popping up in central areas too, having replaced another full-back in Riccardo Calafiori – who drifted into auxiliary centre forward positions during the first half.
Arsenal’s final impact sub in search for a winner at the City Ground was right-back Ben White, as the creative club captain Martin Odegaard was replaced in the same minute.
Raheem Sterling – one of only three fit, recognised front line players for Arsenal – only got 13 minutes off the bench, replacing Ethan Nwaneri – the 17-year-old arguably the Gunners’ brightest spark of the last few weeks – due to overloading concerns.
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Makeshift doesn’t even cover it, but Arsenal and Arteta need to find a way. The only question is: how?
One area is added goals from midfield, which helped Arsenal last season. The emergence of Declan Rice into form helped Arsenal in sticky situations in the run-in of last season, with the midfielder getting three goals and five assists in a run of 11 games between March and May.
The signs that Rice can influence matters at the top end of the pitch are positive. No Premier League player has created more big chances since the turn of the year than the England midfielder.
But the other figure who Arsenal could turn to is captain Odegaard, whose withdrawal late on at Forest summarised a barren run in front of goal of just one league goal and one league assist since the start of December.
Even though Odegaard’s numbers this season are actually similar to his tally after 19 league games last season – and this term has been hampered by injury and illness at critical times – the Norwegian had Saka, Havertz and Co to help out. This season he is on his own.
There is also the bonus of set pieces being Arsenal’s main skill, but then again their last set piece goal came in the north London derby win over Spurs six weeks ago. The Gunners have also seen Aston Villa overtake them in the goals from dead ball situations in recent weeks.
And there is also the argument that Arsenal are too reliant on their dead ball antics, led by set piece coach Nicolas Jover. “I felt there was an obsession with set-pieces, which almost overtakes the whole game,” claimed Neville.
But right now, the Gunners are pretty much scraping the barrel for attacking impetus – that they have to use all the positives and strengths they can get.
Another positive is that the rest of the team – outside of the front three – is at full strength. The Gunners also have the best Expected Goals Conceded record in the Champions League this season, having only conceded three times in Europe all term.
“When you look at the teams that have been very successful, the defensive record is critical, said Arteta on Monday. “Then we have shown the capacity to score a lot of goals in the competition. This team still has a lot of resources to do that.”
With Europe the last chance saloon for silverware this season, how far can those resources take them?
